| 摘要: | This thesis investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and economic development related variables including economic growth (EG), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, average wages (AW), exchange rate (ER), human development index (HDI) for Thailand and Indonesia based on annual data (1980-2012) to test the Granger causality. Before testing the causality, several steps needed to be applied, including Unit Root tests, SIC, AIC, and HQ criteria to obtain the optimal lag, VAR models test, Johansen co-integration test, VECM models built, and Granger causality test. In Thailand, there are five unidirectional causalities running from AW to EC, GDP, and ER, starting from HDI to EC, and flowing from GDP to ER. Furthermore, there are two bidirectional causalities between GDP and EC and between ER and EC. In Indonesia, there are four unidirectional causalities in the long run flowing from AW to FDI, GDP, and ER, and flowing from EC to HDI. From the results, the author suggests that both governments and policy makers of Thailand and Indonesia should deliberately maintain the average wages level to lead positive development of GDP and lowering other costs, or government may increase average wages at a steady phase.
For the case of Indonesia, this measurement can even attract more FDI inflows. Moreover, policy makers of energy bureau of these two countries should promote laws and regulations regarding green technology to reduce energy consumption without sacrificing economic development. Furthermore, Thailand should take necessary action to intervene its exchange rate of currency in order to smooth the energy consumption. Finally, based on the results, average wages are the key factor for economic development in these two countries. It deserves much more attention for the government of Thailand and Indonesia to interfere policy making of average wages. |
