經濟成長、海外直接投資、平均工資 、匯率、人力發展指數及能源消耗 Granger因果關聯性研究 ---以泰國及印尼為例

CCUR > College of Business > Department of International Trade 7 Graduate Institute of International Trade > Thesis > Item 987654321/28408

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://irlib.pccu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/28408

Title:	經濟成長、海外直接投資、平均工資、匯率、人力發展指數及能源消耗 Granger因果關聯性研究 ---以泰國及印尼為例 The Multivariate Granger Causality Study on the Relationship of Economic Growth, FDI Inflows, Average Wages, Exchange Rate, Human Development index and Energy Consumption —Evidence from Thailand and Indonesia
Authors:	成富鳳
Contributors:	國際貿易學系
Keywords:	Average Wages Economic Growth Energy Consumption Exchange Rate FDI Inflows Human Development index Granger causality
Date:	2014
Issue Date:	2014-10-06 13:22:02 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This thesis investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and economic development related variables including economic growth (EG), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, average wages (AW), exchange rate (ER), human development index (HDI) for Thailand and Indonesia based on annual data (1980-2012) to test the Granger causality. Before testing the causality, several steps needed to be applied, including Unit Root tests, SIC, AIC, and HQ criteria to obtain the optimal lag, VAR models test, Johansen co-integration test, VECM models built, and Granger causality test. In Thailand, there are five unidirectional causalities running from AW to EC, GDP, and ER, starting from HDI to EC, and flowing from GDP to ER. Furthermore, there are two bidirectional causalities between GDP and EC and between ER and EC. In Indonesia, there are four unidirectional causalities in the long run flowing from AW to FDI, GDP, and ER, and flowing from EC to HDI. From the results, the author suggests that both governments and policy makers of Thailand and Indonesia should deliberately maintain the average wages level to lead positive development of GDP and lowering other costs, or government may increase average wages at a steady phase. For the case of Indonesia, this measurement can even attract more FDI inflows. Moreover, policy makers of energy bureau of these two countries should promote laws and regulations regarding green technology to reduce energy consumption without sacrificing economic development. Furthermore, Thailand should take necessary action to intervene its exchange rate of currency in order to smooth the energy consumption. Finally, based on the results, average wages are the key factor for economic development in these two countries. It deserves much more attention for the government of Thailand and Indonesia to interfere policy making of average wages.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Trade 7 Graduate Institute of International Trade ] Thesis

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