| 摘要: | 在國際市場與全球供應鏈的商業環境中，同業或異業廠商間之策略聯盟合作日漸頻 繁，特別是跨國性策略聯盟廠商之合作專案往往是本土廠商與國際市場接軌、拓展產能 或技術提昇之重要模式。然而因跨國聯盟專案的跨地區、跨文化協同作業本質而容易衍 生更高的合作風險，且工作缺失、作業反覆修訂所引發的連漪效應與動態複雜性亦顯現 出現行的專案管理技術不足。因此，有必要發展更具系統性及整合性之動態風險管理模 式，以協助管理者之關鍵決策。雖然過去研究曾提出專案簽約前的風險轉移策略，透過 議價與合約協定而將風險處置成本加諸於合作夥伴。但由於實務上仍常見在專案執行過 程中之風險管理不利而導致嚴重損失或破壞合作關係之情況，故本計畫嘗試建立專案執 行過程中之系統動態風險管理模式，可補強過去研究之相對不足，促進更好的跨國聯盟 專案執行成效。 為促使學理與業界實務需求更為貼近，本計畫擬以跨國聯盟合作之能源科技廠房工 程設計管理專案為實務應用案例，考量(1)設計工作品質缺失，(2)設計預算配置缺失，(3) 設計時程安排缺失，(4)分包界面整合缺失等四大構面之合作風險，運用美國麻省理工學 院(MIT)所發展的「系統動態學」(System Dynamics)為主要分析方法論，建構可支援專 案合作風險評估與動態情境模擬之系統動態風險管理模式，以輔助實務上策略聯盟廠商 在合作過程中所需要進行的判斷及決策。同時因風險評估與管理決策時有涉及經理人主 觀判斷、語意模糊、風險偏好等決策行為條件，故本研究亦將應用「模糊理論」(Fuzzy theory)及「效用理論」(Utility theory)輔助處理研究所需之量化及數值分析問題。 本計畫擬建構之系統動態風險管理模式將可協助廠商在跨國聯盟專案執行過程中 支援管理團隊建立系統觀點與衡量指標、動態性監控管理、以及透過電腦情境模擬分析 各種合作風險或專案異常情況，理性評估風險對策之可行性以輔助專案層次及企業層次 之管理決策。由於本計畫廣泛運用科學基礎與系統化問題診斷方法，除了可輔助廠商提 昇合作風險管理與決策能力，亦能助於被廠商運用於日後的經驗學習與商業知識傳承。
As the international marketplace and the global supply chains are getting open to world-wide participation, international strategic alliances become critical business solutions to obtain various competitive advantages. However, due to the cultural difference and multi-operational quality standards, an international strategic alliance team would naturally accompany with more cooperation risks and the induced reworks cycles as well as the negative ripple effects can seriously damage the performance of the alliance projects. Since traditional project management techniques are not specifically sound to deal with the aforementioned rework feedback loops and dynamic complexity, a more integrated decision support model that can help the dynamic project planning and risk management solutions for international alliance projects is very demanding in the real world practices. The main goal of the proposed research is to develop a system dynamics based risk management model for engineering design projects with international alliances. In order to incorporate the modeling efforts into the risk assessment and managerial decisions in real world alliance projects, a mega project case study will be conducted. First, based on the considerations of different cooperation risk factors, this research is designed to discover the decision rules heuristically anchored in the minds of project/business managers by expert’s interview and questionnaire survey. Then, the discovered decision rules as well as risk assessments will be used to develop the proposed model and examine the project scenarios under various conditions. System dynamics, fuzzy set theory, and utility theory are used as complementary methodologies for quantitative analysis and computer based scenarios simulation. It is expected that the research results can provide the rationale of dynamic risk management decisions and assist companies, who intend to form an international strategic alliance, to better control their cooperation risks during the project execution stage with systematic approach. In addition, the proposed model, which is a structured model, can also enhance the learning of business lessons and knowledge accumulations. |
