房地合一稅的稅負轉移效應：以臺北市重複交易實證為例

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Title:	房地合一稅的稅負轉移效應：以臺北市重複交易實證為例 The Tax Incidence Effects of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax : Empirical Evidence from Repeat Sales in Taipei City
Authors:	郭貞佑 KUO, CHEN-YOU
Contributors:	都市計劃與開發管理學系
Keywords:	房地合一稅租稅歸宿轉嫁房價差異中的差異 House and Land Transactions Income Tax Tax Incidence Shifting Housing Prices Difference-in-Differences (DID)
Date:	2025
Issue Date:	2025-03-14 15:20:27 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	摘要自2016年政府實施房地合一稅以來，房地產市場呈現出「以稅制量」而非「以稅制價」的現象，未能有效調節房價。且在推出房地合一稅2.0後，雖增加政府稅收，卻也未達成預期房價下降之目標。然而，此政策對房地產市場實際影響，仍存在諸多爭議與未知因素。在租稅歸宿理論框架下，房地合一稅作為新興稅收政策，其對房地產市場之影響已成為學術界與政策制定者所關注焦點之一。在房地合一稅重稅閉鎖期間，出現對於其進而墊高房價的質疑，認為部分屋主可能採取延長持有房屋時間或將稅負轉嫁至售價上，從而對房價產生間接影響。本研究以臺北市為研究範圍，採用2014年至 2020年實價登錄之重複交易資料，以差異中的差異（DID）方法，探討課徵房地合一稅是否能抑制房價上漲，以及課徵房地合一稅是否會產生轉嫁情形並對房價產生影響。 Abstract Since the implementation of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax by the government in 2016, the housing market has exhibited a phenomenon of "tax-induced volume adjustment" rather than "taxation pricing," failing to effectively regulate housing prices. Furthermore, with the introduction of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0, the intended objective of reducing housing prices has not been achieved. However, the actual impact of this policy on the housing market remains a topic of significant debate, with numerous controversies and unknown factors yet to be resolved. Within the framework of Tax Incidence theory, the House and Land Transactions Income Tax, as an innovative tax policy, has become a focal point of concern for both academia and policymakers. During the heavy taxation lock-in period associated with this policy, concerns have been raised about its potential to indirectly elevate housing prices, with arguments suggesting that some homeowners may opt to extend their property holding periods or shift the tax burden onto buyers by raising sale prices, thereby indirectly influencing housing prices. This study focuses on Taipei City, utilizing real transaction data from 2014 to 2020 and applying the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method to analyze whether the imposition of the House and Land Transactions Income Tax effectively suppresses housing price increases and whether shifting behavior under the tax structure exerts an indirect impact on housing prices.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Urban Affairs and Environmental Planning & Graduate Institute of Urban Affairs and Environmental Planning ] thesis

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