| 摘要: | 電力需求與經濟發展呈現同步的同時，台灣電線電纜產業與台灣經濟共同成長起飛，其在國民經濟建設及工業發展中扮演著重要的角色，政府將其納入策略性的發展工業，故政府政策對其相關之傳統產業公司的產品需求變動具有相當程度之影響力(Harahap, Septiani and Endri, 2020)，進而造成公司股價之波動。為此本文利用事件研究法探討，在經濟成長及新能源改革的趨勢下而制定出來的新政策－電線電纜全面更新，在政策實際宣告前後，造成公司股價的波動，是否能獲得異常報酬，於哪個時機點進入市場操作為最佳獲利時機，又可以哪些資訊輔助投資操作較能得到財富累積之效果，讓投資者在未來面對這些新議題出現時能有個參考的依據。
因此，本文利用2022年3月1日至2023年3月31日間之台灣電線電纜產業個股資料，對於政府宣告《強化電網韌性建設計畫》政策之異常報酬反映，再藉由複迴歸模型進行分析，探討影響該重大政策所造成的累積異常報酬之解釋因子為何。
實證結果發現，在政策宣告前三週即有股價反應，且多為正面看法，雖然在宣告後第二、三週開始有正有負，但以平均累積異常報酬率之實證結果，得知事件造成之財富累積效果為正。
As electricity demand and economic development progress in tandem,Taiwan’s wires and cables industry has grown alongside the Taiwan's economy. It plays a crucial role in national economic development and industrial progress. The government has incorporated this industry into its strategic industrial development, thus government policies significantly impact the product demand of related traditional industry companies, affecting their stock prices (Harahap, Septiani, and Endri, 2020). This paper employs the event study method to explore whether the new policy on comprehensive updates of electric wires and cables, formulated under the trends of economic growth and new energy reforms, causes stock price fluctuations and whether abnormal returns can be achieved before and after the policy announcement. The study also seeks to determine the optimal timing for market operations to achieve maximum profit and identify what information can assist investment operations to better achieve wealth accumulation, providing investors with a reference when facing these new issues in the future.
Therefore, this paper utilizes data from Taiwan’s electric wires and cables industry stocks between March 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023, to analyze the abnormal returns in response to the government's announcement of the "Strengthening the Resilience of the Power Grid Construction Plan" policy. Using a multiple regression model, the paper investigates the explanatory factors affecting the cumulative abnormal returns caused by this significant policy.
Empirical results show that there were stock price reactions as early as three weeks before the policy announcement, with mostly positive outlooks. Although there were both positive and negative returns starting from the second and third weeks after the announcement, the empirical results of the average cumulative abnormal return rate indicate that the wealth accumulation effect caused by the event is positive. |
