| 摘要: | 金融市場的發展往往與國家政治及經濟事件關係密切，而台灣股市是一個市場規模相對小的金融市場，較容易因為特殊事件引發波動。總統大選是台灣每4年舉辦一次的政治盛事，此事件對於金融市場的影響受到許多研究者及投資者的關注。
本研究將針對2004年至2020年共五次總統大選期間的金控股股價變化進行探討，股價報酬樣本取自台灣經濟新報資料庫，並以事件研究法中的平均調整模式分析股價是否有異常報酬。
本文驗證結果可歸納以下兩點：一、金控股在總統大選前1個月內確實有產生異常報酬率，且是正向顯著。也就是說每次總統大選前，就會在媒體上看到的標題「選舉行情」，並非毫無根據。二、金控股於總統大選後，同樣出現正向顯著異常報酬率，選後之異常報酬率甚至高於選前，說明可能因為不確定性在選後消除，而產生短期上漲的選後「慶祝行情」。實證結果發現選前與選後皆出現正向顯著異常報酬率。
The development of financial markets is often closely related to national political and economic events, and Taiwan's stock market is a relatively small financial market, so it is more likely to cause fluctuations due to special events. The presidential election is a political event held every four years in Taiwan. The impact of this event on the financial market has attracted the attention of many researchers and investors.
This study will explore the stock price changes of Financial Holding Companies during a total of five presidential election campaigns from 2004 to 2020. The stock price return sample is taken from the Taiwan Economic News database, and the mean-adjusted return model in the event study is used to analyze whether there are abnormal returns in the stock price.
The verification results of this article can be summarized into the following two points: 1. Financial Holding Companies did produce abnormal returns one month before the presidential election, and it was positive and significant. That is to say, the headline “election bull run” that you see in the media before every presidential election is not unfounded. 2. Financial Holding Companies also experienced a positive and significant abnormal rate of return after the presidential election. The abnormal rate of return after the election was even higher than before the election, indicating that uncertainty may be eliminated after the election, resulting in a short-term rise in the post-election celebration market. Empirical results show that there are positive and significant abnormal returns before and after the election. |
