COVID-19疫情和俄烏戰爭對原油價格波動性的影響

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题名:	COVID-19疫情和俄烏戰爭對原油價格波動性的影響 The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian War on Crude Oil Price Volatility
作者:	翁嘉宏
贡献者:	財務金融學系
关键词:	時間序列分析布蘭特原油俄烏戰爭 COVID-19疫情原油報酬原油報酬波動性
日期:	2023
上传时间:	2023-08-07 10:20:27 (UTC+8)
摘要:	自2020年以來，因為COVID-19疫情與戰爭等因素，原油市場受到衝擊。在過去的油價戰爭中，油價的變化主要是因為供給與需求的因素所導致的，此外政治不確定性、戰爭與金融危機也會使得原油價格受到衝擊。本文利用EGARCH不對稱模型進行研究模型，並取用2014年1月1日至2022年12月30日的布蘭特原油價格日資料作為實證樣本，研究俄烏戰爭與COVID-19疫情對原油價格波動性的影響。研究結果顯示，俄烏戰爭所造成的油價衝擊大於COVID-19疫情，戰爭所造成的油價變化速度較COVID-19疫情來的快，供給所造成的衝擊比需求來的大。 Since 2020, the oil market has been impacted by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and wars. In previous oil price wars, changes in oil prices were mainly driven by supply and demand factors. Additionally, political uncertainty, wars, and financial crises also impact crude oil prices. The EGARCH asymmetric model was employed by this study. The daily price data of Brent crude oil from January 1, 2014, to December 30, 2022, were collected as empirical samples to examine the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of oil prices. The research findings indicated that the oil price impact caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war was greater than that of the COVID-19 pandemic. Comparing to the pandemic, the war factor resulted in faster changes in oil prices. It demonstrated that the impact from the supply side was larger than that from the demand side.
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