逆向房貸己經在各先進國家實施已久且效果不錯,讓借款人不需先行出售房屋資產而能取得生活所需的現金,並且仍然可以自住或出租,或以取得之資金支付養老院之費用。
本硏究以人口老化作為出發點,理解人口老化所導致的經濟成長困境將如何與逆向房貸產生連繫,隨時間的推移經濟低成長終將成為常態,促使逆向房貸市場不斷成長。
逆向房貸文獻有「生命週期 」(Life-Cycle Model)與「資產管理假說」(Asset Management Model)兩種模式,可透過逆向房貸隨時改變資金流動方向,但最重要的目標給付足供入住安養機構之所需。逆向房貸領取之年金若購買壽險保單、給付長期照護費用,對於安養晚年具有顯著性效果。
對逆向房貸產品設計而言,三大關鍵變數是:申請者的存活年齡、標的不動產之價值變動,以及利率的未來走勢。餘命過長形成的長壽風險(longevity risk),與不動產價值變動所形成的價格風險(price risk),兩者係屬敏感因子。利率為相對較不敏感之因子,而不動產價值才是相對較為敏感之因子,可透過國外流行之終身年金保險制將風險轉嫁出去。
出生於嬰兒潮世代的那一代人,他們面臨的是高成長的經濟氛圍,他們的所得不僅足以支應購房所需,且尚有餘力購買壽險為退休生活作準備。
本研究認為,高房價將可能導致未來一般受薪階級可能再也無餘力購買壽險為退休生活作準備,因而轉變為年輕時以一般房貸購房,中年時當房貸接近還清時則轉為理財型房貸同時保有棲息之所,退休後幾年當儲蓄所剩無幾或者有安養需求時則轉為年金型逆向房貸作為退休生活養老之用。
Reverse Mortgages have been implemented in advanced countries for a long time and have achieved good results. Borrowers can obtain the cash needed for life without first selling housing assets, and can still live in or rent out, or use the funds to pay for nursing home expenses.
This study uses population ageing as the starting point to understand how the economic growth dilemma caused by population ageing will be linked to reverse mortgages. Low economic growth over time will eventually become the norm, prompting the continuous growth of the reverse mortgage market.
The literature on reverse mortgages has two models: "Life-Cycle Model" and "Asset Management Model". The direction of capital flow can be changed at any time through reverse mortgages, but the most important goal is to pay enough for accommodation Institutional needs. If the annuity received by the reverse mortgage purchases a life insurance policy and pays long-term care expenses, it has a significant effect on the elderly.
For the design of reverse mortgage products, the three key variables are: applicant’s age of survival, changes in the value of the underlying real estate, and future trends in interest rates. Longevity risk caused by excessive remaining life and price risk caused by changes in the value of real estate are both sensitive factors. Interest rate is a relatively insensitive factor, while real estate value is a relatively sensitive factor. Risks can be passed on through the life annuity insurance system popular abroad.
The generation born in the baby boom generation is facing a high-growth economic atmosphere. Their income is not only enough to meet the needs of buying a house, but they also have enough energy to purchase life insurance to prepare for their retirement.
This study believes that high housing prices may cause the general salaried class in the future may no longer be able to purchase life insurance to prepare for retirement, so they will switch to general mortgage purchases when they are young, and they will switch to financial management when the mortgage is close to being paid off in the middle age. At the same time, the type of housing loan keeps a place to live, and a few years after retirement, when there is little savings left or there is a need for security, it will be converted to an annuity type reverse mortgages for retirement.