本文以生態環境的角度，針對近世(10-19世紀)東亞氣溫長期偏低與西歐的黑死病蔓延兩起自然事件，探討氣候變遷與疫情衝擊如何透過人口增減，影響社會菁英的創新(或尋租)行為，以了解少子化問題與升學主義兩個表面上互不相關，但匯合起來卻富含科技發展意義的現象。特別是，本文強調生態環境變遷乃係透過稻作經濟做為管道，方形成東亞社會特有的升學主義。我們發現：只要社會能夠摒棄文憑主義，避免教育與研發脫節，並提供經濟誘因吸引社會菁英戮力追求創新，則少子化所導致的人口與勞動力減少，非但不會影響成長，甚至可能成為技術進步的動力。因此，科技發展的關鍵因素在於：社會菁英的行為誘因而非人口多寡。
From the viewpoint of ecosystem changes, this article uses the differences in the rates of population changes and elites’ self-interest behaviors between East Asia and Western Europe in the early modern period as a procedural tool to investigate the topics of sub-replacement fertility and educational inflation. Superficially, both events seem to be unrelated to each other, but their combination can provide a deep insight into technological development. In particular, we emphasize that the rice economy is the main channel that ecological change shapes East Asia's unique credentialism culture. The result of this research is that if a society can resist the ideology of credentialism and provide reasonable incentives to appropriate the innovation, then the shortage of labor in a low birth rate society not only does not prevent growth, but also can promote the progress of technology. Therefore, the key point of technological innovation is the incentive of the elite to innovate, rather than a huge population increase.
