| 摘要: | 中華民國政府自1949年播遷來台後，雖努力維持國際地位、爭取國際對我之支持，然終究不敵國際結構與歷史現實，在美國與我斷交並與中國（以下簡稱中國）建交後，我國際地位及國家發展方向，持續深受中國與美國關係變遷的影響。兩岸政府在國共內戰起即長期處於對峙狀態，雙方在國家定位、主權觀點等存在巨大歧異，更因為台灣邁向民主化與政黨輪替後，彼此差異更形擴大，也促使台海演變成為東亞不穩定的因素之一。
美國長年作為兩岸局勢中之維持及平衡者，過去七十年的國際格局變遷，其在美中台三角關係中，總是以國家利益最大化，做為其最優先的評估條件與指導原則，然維持兩岸能在有序而不失控的環境下既競爭又合作，亦是其對台以及對中國之政策主軸。中國因為美蘇冷戰格局而打開了中美互動管道，也因改革開放及經濟全球化與美國形成密切的互動關係，在尚未能轉變美中台當前格局前，必須承認美國在兩岸關係中扮演著關鍵平衡角色，並做為抑制台獨的可能渠道。
鑑於中美關係近年的競合與轉折，不僅牽動著國際政經結構的走向，也對台灣未來的發展有深遠的影響。本研究嘗試透過戰略三角理論及攻勢現實主義，輔以文獻分析、歷史研究及比較研究法，針對2009~2019年美中戰略關係發展如何影響台灣作出歸納整理，希冀能對台灣的戰略研究做出個人些許的貢獻。
本研究認為，在過去及可見的未來，影響台灣戰略走向的最大因素還是來自於美國，由於在美中台戰略三角中，美國如何看待及判斷和中國的戰略關係，對台灣執政者的選擇影響尤大，這是兩岸主權對抗及實力不對等結構下的必然。故而導致美中台三角關係，從戰略三角的分析上推演多在「羅曼蒂克型」與「結婚型」兩種類型中轉變，其主要原因是因為三方難以同時友好，即便發生也僅能短暫維持，另台灣亦不可能同時與美、中為敵。對台灣執政者與社會大眾而言，兩大之間難為小，如何正確地看待美中關係的變化，並謹守分際扮演善意第三方的角色，應是維護我國家利益及安全最務實的做法。
Since the Government of the Republic of China relocated to Taiwan in 1949. Despite its efforts to maintain international status and strive for international support, Taiwan eventually lost the ground to international structures and realities. Since then, the international status and national development direction of Taiwan have been greatly affected by the changes in China-US relations. Cross-strait governments have been in a state of confrontation until nowadays. Why two sides have great differences in national positioning and sovereignty views, it is because Taiwan has moved toward democratization and the rotation of political parties. The difference between them has become more and more widened. This situation also prompted the Taiwan Strait became a factor of instability in East Asia. The United States, which has been the maintainer and balancer of the cross-strait for many years. US has been guided by its national interests in the US-China-Taiwan triangular relationship in the past 70 years. However, maintaining order and controllable competition and cooperation is still the key principles of making policy. China opened the Sino-US interactive channel in the US-Soviet Cold War. Afterwards, China formed a closer interactive relationship with the US due to reform, opening up, and economic globalization. Nonetheless, China has to recognize that the US as a balanced role in cross-strait relations. Before China could transform the US-China-Taiwan trilateral status, US could be a channel to suppress Taiwan becoming independent.
The fact that cooperation and transition in Sino-US relations become more complex recent years. It not only affected the direction of the international political and economic structure, but also had a profound impact on the future development of Taiwan. This study attempts to make a summary of how the development of Sino-US strategic relations in the past decade affecting Taiwan through strategic triangle theory. With historical research approaches and literature analysis methods, author would hope to make some personal contributions to Taiwan’s strategic research. This study shows that both the past and the foreseeable future, the biggest factor affecting Taiwan’s strategic direction coming from the United States. In the US-China-Taiwan strategic triangle, how the United States views and judges its strategic relationship with China has a particular influence on the choice of Taiwan’s governors. This is inevitable under the structure of cross-strait sovereign confrontation and unequal power. As a result, the US-China-Taiwan triangular relationship can only be deduced from the analysis of the strategic triangle in the "romantic triangle" and "stable marriage" states. It is difficult for the three parties to be friendly, the ménage à trots, at the same time. Even it is happening, it only last for a short period of time. Also, it is impossible for Taiwan to interact with the US and China as enemies at the same time. For the Taiwanese ruling party and the general public, it is difficult to distinguish between the two strong powers. How to correctly view the changes in US-China relations, and to act as a third party with goodwill should be the most pragmatic in safeguarding our country’s interests and security practice. |
