新產品預告效應與市場異常報酬反應 比較分析-基於iPhone的實證研究

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题名:	新產品預告效應與市場異常報酬反應比較分析-基於iPhone的實證研究 The Relationship between Market Reaction and Preannouncement Effect of New Product: Comparative Analysis of iPhone Launch
作者:	賴福明
贡献者:	財務金融學系
关键词:	事件研究法智慧型手機異常報酬新產品
日期:	2020
上传时间:	2020-08-17 14:30:17 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本文採用Apple多年來推出的新款iPhone產品的發布日期，並將其作為HTC、LG、三星、Nokia、Sony、Motorola等新款旗艦手機作為參考點進行比較。以蘋果新iPhone產品的年度推出日期為基準，對2007年至2018年iPhone推出之前和之後推出的各品牌廠商的手機產品進行異常報酬差異性分析。調查結果說明本研究認為非Apple製造商應在推出新款iPhone之前推出新產品。由於每年推出新款iPhone的時間接近第三季度，先前的研究顯示出蘋果品牌忠誠度最高，消費者購買其他品牌手機的意願將會下降。結果可見，在第一周銷售新手機之前存在顯著的正向異常報酬，但在銷售日之後，它們變成負異常報酬。此外，宣佈在iPhone發布後推出的新手機則有顯著的負向異常報酬。本研究結果顯示，當新的iPhone產品進入市場時，市場對各品牌廠商的股價反應，以便為不同維度的投資者提供參考。 This study used the launch date of new iPhone products by Apple over the years and contrasts them as the reference point with the new flagship phones of HTC, LG, Samsung, Nokia, Sony, and Motorola. With the yearly release date of Apple’s new iPhone products as the benchmark, difference analysis in abnormal returns was conducted among the phone products of various brand manufacturers released before and after than iPhone launches from 2007 to 2018. The findings illustrate that this study believes the manufacturers should release their new products before the new iPhones are released. In consequence, there are significantly positive abnormal returns prior to the selling of new mobile phones in the first week, but after the selling day, they turn into negative abnormal returns. Furthermore, the new mobile phones declared to be released after the iPhone released continuously have eventful positive abnormal returns. This study notes that new iPhone products for each year are worse than consumers’ expectation. The above-mentioned study presents the market response to the stock prices of various brand manufacturers when new iPhone products come into the market, so as to show a reference to investors in different dimensions.
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