大聯盟先發投手投球數據時空分析 —以休士頓太空人隊為例

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題名:	大聯盟先發投手投球數據時空分析 —以休士頓太空人隊為例 Space-Time Analysis of MLB Starting Pitcher’s Pitching: A Case Study of Houston Astros
作者:	蔡彥輝
貢獻者:	地學研究所地理組
關鍵詞:	美國職棒大聯盟配球模式馬可夫鏈 MLB Pitch Pattern Markov Chain
日期:	2020
上傳時間:	2020-08-10 09:49:56 (UTC+8)
摘要:	棒球自1871年首度職業化，發展至今已有一百多年的歷史。而棒球數據紀錄一直以來都是球隊用來評估以及選擇選手的依據。Bill James在1970年代開啟了賽伯計量學 (Sabermetrics)，棒球進階數據研究的熱潮，爾後也被許多球隊採納並證實可以改變比賽的勝負。美國職棒大聯盟自2006年引進PITCHf/x系統以來，關於投球資料的蒐集也越來越詳盡，更於2015年引進Statcast系統，導入全面性的空間資料收集。在過去的研究中，雖然有研究納入投手投球的空間位置資訊做為參考，但較少研究著重在投手配球的空間決策，因此本研究利用投手逐球紀錄之數據資料，以休士頓太空人隊五位先發投手為例，利用投手面對同一位打者的每一顆投球為時間序列，配合馬可夫鏈狀態轉移的概念以及轉移矩陣的視覺化，探討投手前後投球在13格宮格之間的空間轉移情形。並加入簡化後之投球球種，利用馬可夫鏈轉移矩陣，找出投手最常使用的狀態轉移模式，並轉繪狀態轉移矩陣成進壘位置分區圖以利判讀，利用狀態轉移模式來歸納投手的配球模式，最後以配球模式示意圖展示。透過研究結果可以發現，五位投手在配球上有共同的模式：連續兩球使用相同區域的快速球或是非快速球、以及快速球轉變為非快速球的斜對角投球位置轉移。其餘不同的配球模式中，有幾種模式是只有少數投手會嘗試的，如Justin Verlander以及Dallas Keuchal 在連續兩球快速球的配球上，會採用垂直縱向及斜對角方向位置轉移；Gerrit Cole不同於其他投手，常採用非快速球轉變為快速球的球種，搭配位置轉移的配球模式。在投球進壘位置部分，五位投手雖有不完全相同的進壘位置使用，但皆會將投球集中於較靠近好球帶邊緣，且打者較難揮擊的11-14宮格位置。藉由本研究的資料處理流程，可以將這些配球模式量化，並視覺化為圖表展示。用以作為擬訂投手訓練方法及攻擊策略的依據。 Baseabll statistics have a very long history of more than 100 years. It has been playing a crucial role in the process of player evaluation and selection since this sport was first professionalized in 1871. In 1970s, Bill James started the movement of “Advanced Stats” research, called Sabermetrics, which was later adopted by many teams and has been proved an effevtive approach to win games. In 2006, MLB first introduced the PITCHf/x system to collect pitching data; in 2015, a new tracking system, called Statcast, was installed in all thirty MLB stadiums to measure the movements of players and balls on the field at all times. Those revolutionary advances in spatial data collection have brought a new era of data analysis in baseball. Although previous researches have included some spatial analysis of pitching data, few of them focused on the spatial decision of pitcher's pitching patterns. In this research, we use the transition matrix of Markov chain to find out the most commonly used state transition modes of pitching. Five starting pitchers of Houston Astros were chosen to demostrate our approach. The pitch-by-pitch data was first divided to two simplified categories, fastball and non-fastball, and then mapped to thirteen different pitch zones (zone 1-9 and zone 11-14) based on its locations. We summarized the transition matrices of the five pitchers, and visualized the results as pitch-zone heat maps to show their combination of pitches. Our research shows that all pitchers shared common pitch patterns: two consecutive fastballs or non-fastballs in the same zone, and a fastabll-to-non-fastballs pair with diagonal zone change; however, there are several patterns that only one pitcher will use. For example, Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchal use two consecutive fastballs with vertical and diagonal zone change, respectively. Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher who prefers the patterns of non-fastball-to-fastball pair with different zone changes. All five pitchers focused on the pitch zone 11-14, which are close to the edge of strike zone and difficult for the batter to hit.
顯示於類別:	[地理學系] 博碩士論文

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