| 摘要: | 近年來在倡導TOD發展的同時，卻也逐漸遺忘過往對於環境的破壞，已使城市地區存在著不可 預期的高度風險，如災害發生時基礎設施與交通建設的嚴重損壞，會瞬間加重民眾對於交通系統的需 求，進而造成整體交通癱瘓。依據前年度研究（MOST 103- 2410 - H - 034 - 041 - MY2 -)成果發現，弱 勢族群的交通需求，尚未落實到TOD運輸環境與土地使用規劃，更無評估弱勢族群在運輸過程中對 於環境防災能力的認知與感受，且缺少人口脆弱度或防災（逃生）路徑之議題加以深入考量，主要係以 宏觀層面與單一族群進行討論，尚缺乏針對上述不同的弱勢族群與一連串相關議題加以深入探討。此 外，綜觀當前運輸環境的發展，則仍係以傳統TOD理念為主要發展策略，而鮮少考量弱勢族群在整 體運輸環境中的脆弱度，若在極力倡導民眾使用大眾運輸的同時，卻忽略環境災害所帶來的立即性的 危害，將大為降低TOD運輸環境對大型災害的應變能力，勢必成為日後都市發展的一大隱憂，為使 台灣朝向可持續TOD都市發展，本計晝將依據不同研究内容與對象，分為三個年度進行。 第一年度旨在『建立交通需求與人口脆弱度的運輸環境評估指標』，首先將TOD設計理念與弱 勢族群的交通運輸需求相整合，以台北都會區為研究對象，應用巨量資料(Big Data)進行弱勢族群之交 通需求趨勢分析，以界定弱勢族群的運輸環境評估面向，繼而以模糊德爾菲法(FDM)界定出弱勢族群 友善評估面向，並擬出弱勢族群友善運輸環境特徵，藉此從弱勢族群的角度探討其對於友善運輸環境 之喜好，最後以分析網絡程序法(ANP)建立出人口脆弱度評估指標，以供未來發展友善TOD都市之 參考依據。如此雖能提供台灣朝向友善都市發展之方針，但亦僅著重於都市尺度，尚未考量到於弱勢 族群的交通需求與人口脆弱度及建成環境的影響，據此本計晝續擬第二年度計晝進行。 第二年度旨在『建構交通需求與人口脆弱度對建成環境的影響關係』，首先將以階層線性模式 (HLM)進行弱勢族群運輸行為分析，依據人口脆弱度以探討運輸環境與土地利用結構對弱勢族群影響 之階層關係；並以羅吉特(Logit)模式，探討弱勢族群對於環境防災能力的認知與感受；最後再以結構 方程模式(SEM)，以從不同的運輸環境中，分析交通需求與人口脆弱度及建成環境的影響關係，以瞭 解民眾於災害發生時對於逃生路徑與避難據點的選擇傾向，以藉此反應到第三年度的土地使用上，進 而改善整體運輸環境的防災能力，亦使一般民眾受惠。 第三年度旨在『建構出具連貫性與防災性的友善運輸規劃模型』，首先將人口脆弱度評估指標與 空間型構法則(Space Syntax)相整合，以缝補片段且不連續的運輸路徑，並進一步以多目標數學規劃法 (MOP)為基礎，以評估其TOD運輸環境，若以弱勢族群友善最佳運輸路徑為目標，其周圍土地使 用該如何規劃與整合，才能降低TOD環境中的人口脆弱度，進而提升民眾的使用意願，最後建構出 考量弱勢族群交通需求且具有整合性與防災性的友善運輸環境發展模式，以期台灣TOD運輸環境朝 向可持續發展。
Research based on the previous year (MOST 103- 2410 - H - 034 - 041 - MY2 -) outcomes found that the plan was mainly carried out against aging and walking rather analyze issues, while not fully consider the transportation environment, the impact of various disadvantaged groups and transportation needs, and no way to assess the disadvantaged groups in the transport process capability for environmental disaster prevention awareness and feelings, and the lack of population vulnerability or Disaster paths to be considered in depth, lack of response to these different disadvantaged groups and a series of related topics explore them in depth. In addition, an overview of the development of the current transportation environment, the system is still in the traditional TOD concept as the main development strategy, and rarely consider the vulnerability of disadvantaged groups in the overall transport environment, TOD transportation environment will be greatly reduced ability to respond to major disasters, is bound to become a major worry for the future of urban development, in order to make Taiwan TOD towards sustainable urban development, this plan will be based on different research and objects were divided into three years. The first year is designed to "build traffic demand and population vulnerability transportation environmental assessment indicators", first TOD transportation needs of disadvantaged groups of design concepts and integrate to the Taipei metropolitan area for the study. Application of Big Data for traffic analysis of demand trends of disadvantaged groups to define disadvantaged groups for the environmental assessment of transport, the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM ) defining a friendly assessment for disadvantaged groups, and to prepare disadvantaged groups environment friendly transport characteristics, thereby explore its preference for the environment-friendly transport, and finally to analyze network procedure Act (ANP) to establish a population vulnerability assessment from the perspective of disadvantaged groups indicators for the future development of the city's TOD friendly reference. So although able to provide a friendly policy toward Taiwan urban development, but also only focused on the urban scale, yet taking into consideration the traffic demand and population vulnerability in disadvantaged groups and built environmental impact, pursuant to which the plan intends to continue the second year count were painted. The second year is designed to "construct the traffic demand and population vulnerability of the built environment's impact on relations", the first class will be linear mode (HLM) were disadvantaged groups transport behavior analysis, based on population vulnerability to investigate the transport and land use on the environment affecting disadvantaged groups of class relations; and logit (Logit) model to explore the ability of disadvantaged groups for environmental disaster prevention awareness and feelings; Finally, structural equation modeling (SEM), with transport from different environments, analyze traffic demand affect the relationship between the built environment and the vulnerability of the population, in order to understand the people in times of disaster tendency to choose the path of escape and refuge stronghold, to take the reaction to the third year on land use, thus improving the overall transport capacity environmental disaster prevention, also enable the general public benefit. The third year is designed to "construct issue of continuity and disaster prevention friendly transport planning model", first population vulnerability assessment index and Spatial Configuration law (Space Syntax) integrate to mend fragments and discontinuous transport path, and further to the multi-objective mathematical programming (MOP) as the basis for assessing their TOD transportation environment, if the disadvantaged groups friendly transport route for the best goal of the surrounding land-use planning and how to integrate in order to reduce the vulnerability of the population TOD environment degree, and thus enhance people's willingness to use, and finally construct the transport needs of disadvantaged groups to consider integration with disaster prevention and having sexual development environment friendly transport modes to Taiwan TOD transportation environment towards sustainable development. |
