將美中貿易戰效應鑲嵌至供應鏈中的專利訴訟之資訊價值衡量與競爭攻防策略的動態風險分析

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Title:	將美中貿易戰效應鑲嵌至供應鏈中的專利訴訟之資訊價值衡量與競爭攻防策略的動態風險分析 Embedding Us–China Trade War with Evaluation of Information Value of Patent Infringement and Dynamic Risk between Patent Offensive and Defensive Strategies in Supply Chain
Authors:	王譯賢
Contributors:	財務金融學系
Keywords:	美中貿易戰供應鏈重組專利訴訟專利風險直接專利訴訟風險間接侵權風險供應鏈連鎖風險網路聲量資訊價值所有權策略防禦性策略槓桿策略過度反應反應不足動態條件相關的向量誤差修正多變量GJR-GARCH模型
Date:	2019
Issue Date:	2019-11-12 10:41:59 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	近年來生產成本隨著智慧製造的快速、海外生產基地的製造成本快速提升，明顯降低供應鏈外包的誘因。加上中美貿易紛爭不斷，貿易戰火更有延伸至資通訊產業的智慧財產權之勢，其對台灣資訊產業與供應鏈廠商勢必帶來相當衝擊，進而導致供應鏈重組與產業重新布局的演變。首先，本計畫透過灰關聯分析與專利相對優勢指標，建構市場共同性與資源相似的競爭者分析矩陣（Chen, 1996），描繪發動專利訴訟的資訊廠商與其被告廠商間的競爭關係。再透過AMC理論觀察雙方的網路聲量、相對規模與異常交易量能否提前辨識採取攻擊或防禦行為（Yu and Cannella, 2007；Bollen, Mao and Zeng, 2011），進而藉遭受專利攻擊至採取回應策略期間的累積異常報酬，衡量「競爭—回應」期間的累積資訊價值，並探討貿易戰是否會變原本市場對供應鏈專利競爭趨勢引起資訊價值過度反應或不足的現象。此外，再將專利侵權訴訟型態（直接風險、間接風險、供應鏈連鎖風險）對應McGrath, Chen and MacMillan（1998）的攻擊式、偽裝式、謀略式競爭，以及Somaya (2012)的回應策略（所有權策略、防禦性策略、槓桿策略）對比定位，建構出專利對抗/回應的系列組合。最後再利用GARCH族模型，衡量包含事前因子、專利競爭行為，與事後專利回應策略等專利組合風險結構之差異，對美中貿易戰之影響進行風險變化分析。 Recently, the production cost has been rapidly reduced with the evolution of smart manufacturing, and the manufacturing cost of overseas production bases has been significantly improved, significantly reducing the incentives for supply chain outsourcing. As the US-China trade war escalates, restrictions on intellectual property rights of high-tech products are expected to follow in the future. If Taiwanese manufacturers cannot immediately respond to dynamic patent risk by quickly moving their relative position, will face reorganization of the global supply chain, resulting in irreparable harm of operational patterns. Thus, the purpose of this project is to analyze the quantitative models to estimate the interactive effect of trade war and patent risk in a systematic manner for manufacturers in the face of various types of patent litigations. Firstly, this study used Grey relational analysis and Revealed patent advantage to measures the competition relationship of firms in the market commonality and resource similarity dimensions (Chen, 1996). Second, through the AMC theory, this study identifies driving factors, internet sentiment, average abnormal volume, and the relative size of the competitors, to determine the attack or defensive behavior of the focus firm (Yu and Cannella, 2007; Bollen, Mao and Zeng, 2011). Meanwhile, this study further applied market model with ex-ante driving factors to explore the information value during the period from the beginning of the patent infringement of the defendant to the response. In addition, this study try to map patent risk (direct infringement risks, patent chain risks, and indirect infringement risks), competitive behavior (attack, feint and gambit) and response strategies (proprietary strategy, defensive strategy, and leveraging strategy) to construct “competition- response” strategy portfolio (McGrath, Chen and MacMillan, 1998; Somaya, 2012). Finally, this study integrated the ex-ante driving factors (included internet sentiment, average abnormal volume, and the relative size of the competitors), the ex-post patent strategies (included proprietary strategy, defensive strategy, and leveraging strategy) and current variable of patent risks (included direct infringement risks, patent chain risks, and indirect infringement risks) of the sampled companies by analyzing the vector error correction model GJR-GARCH (VECM GJR-GARCH) to establish a complete picture of patent litigation risks with a holistic analytical approach. As the trade war escalates, this study compare the differences of the estimated coefficients (Patent competition/ Response strategy) to analyze the impact of US-China trade war on the risks. Market participants may dynamically adjust investment portfolios and build hedge positions in accordance with the dynamic shifts of patent risks.
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