Analysis of Quantitative Easing's Effect on Volatility in the U.S. Stock Market

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Title:	Analysis of Quantitative Easing's Effect on Volatility in the U.S. Stock Market 量化寬鬆對美國股市波動性的影響分析
Authors:	石傑森 STONE, JASON
Contributors:	全球商務碩士學位學程碩士班
Keywords:	不對稱波動率量化寬鬆央行貨幣政策 Asymmetric Volatility GJR GARCH Central Bank Monetary Policy Quantitative Easing Quantitative Finance Risk-management
Date:	2019
Issue Date:	2019-09-18 13:20:45 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	這項描述性研究考察了美國聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）稱為量化寬鬆（QE）的非標準貨幣政策對美國兩大股票市場指數的影響。在對槓桿引發的市場波動性進行敘述之後，本研究認為GJR GARCH可用於評估市場上LSAP活動的幅度作為影響的晴雨表。使用GJR GARCH框架測量QE對股票市場波動率，美國股票指數從1971年到QE3尾期結束的波動率分析的影響，QE指標從QEi虛擬變量項的條件方差中捕獲不對稱波動率。調查結果包括通過聯邦儲備委員會量化寬鬆措施期間的波動率的統計顯著衰減，為風險管理和政策制定者提供緊湊的方法，以衡量量化寬鬆措施產生的市場影響。除最廣泛商定的反映經濟健康的指標外，本研究還反映了整個量化寬鬆政策的最新市場觀察。 This descriptive study examines the impact of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) non-standard monetary policy called Quantitative Easing (QE) on the two largest U.S. stock market indices. Following a narrative of leverage induced market volatility, this study argues for the inclusion of GJR GARCH for assessing the magnitude of LSAP activity upon markets as a barometer of impact. Modeling QE effects on volatility in equity markets, returns and volatility analysis of the U.S. stock indices from 1971 until the conclusion of the QE3 tail period was measured using GJR GARCH framework with QE indicators capturing asymmetric volatility from the conditional variance of the QEi dummy variable term. The findings include statistically significant attenuation of volatility through periods of the Federal Reserve Board's QE measures, offering a compact approach for risk-management and policymakers alike to gauge market impact resulting from QE measures. This study reflects the latest market observations for the entire QE regime in addition to the most widely agreed upon indicators that reflect economic health.
Appears in Collections:	[English Program of Global Business] Thesis

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