| 摘要: | 網路的普及，使得越來越多的消費者越來越傾向於透過網站的口碑資訊來進行購買決策，電影產業也是如此。然而，過去多數的文獻僅從靜態觀點探討口碑特質對票房之影響，而忽略了口碑的動態觀點。換言之，動態的各種口碑特質以及電影上映前後之動態口碑特質對票房之影響效果為何，有必要做進一步檢驗。再者，過去多數的文獻僅著重於探討單一網路口碑屬性(量或質)對票房之影響，而忽略了在真實的線上電影平台世界中，口碑質與量對票房，應具有交互影響效果。為解決這些重要的實務問題，本研究收集豆瓣電影網2013至2017年的83部電影口碑質與量和中國票房網之票房資料以及電影相關資料，探討前述之研究缺口。
研究發現，上映前口碑量與質對整體票房不存在顯著影響，並且口碑量與質，對整體票房不存在交互效果，顯示上映前口碑的質與量無法預測整體票房，這也解釋了上映前口碑是持續的而非集中的出現，廠商應週期性的宣傳及加強廣告強度。電影上映後，每週的口碑量對該週票房均有顯著影響效果，口碑質僅在第五週對該週票房具有顯著影響效果。再者，電影上映後的口碑量與質，存在交互效果顯著影響票房，即不管口碑質高低，口碑量均是影響票房的關鍵因素。換言之，當口碑質高時，口碑量越大票房越佳；反之，當口碑質低時，口碑量越大票房也會越佳。因此電影上映後前四週，廠商應每週制定新的話題及討論熱點來提升網路口碑的量，於第五週時，廠商應及時瞭解口碑質的現況，遭遇負面口碑時，想方設法減損負面口碑造成的傷害，並透過各式媒體宣傳，以營造正面口碑，以促進消費者進電影院觀看。
With rapid development of Internet, more and more consumers like to decide whether to buy or not through the word of mouse on website, so is the current situation in film industry. However, in the past, most literatures only discussed the influence of word of mouse characteristics on box office from static point of view, but ignored dynamic one. In other words, we should make further inspection on dynamic and various characteristics of word of mouse, and the influence of dynamic word of mouse characteristics on box office before and after film release. Furthermore, in the past, most literatures only focused on single feature influence of word of mouse (volume or valence) on the box office. However, as for real online film platforms, both valence and volume of word of mouse have interactive effects on the final box office. In order to solve these important practical problems, this thesis not only collected the valence and volume of word of mouse of 83 films on douban.com from 2014 to 2017, and the box office data of China box office website and relevant data of movies, but also discussed the shortcomings of above researches.
It found that the valence and volume of word of mouse before release had no significant influence on overall box office, and it also had no interactive effect on overall box office. This result showed us that the valence and volume of word of mouse before release cannot predict the overall box office. It also explained that pre-release word of mouse will occur continuously rather than intensively, so studios should periodically promote and strengthen the intensity of advertising and marketing. After the film released, the weekly word of mouse volume had a significant impact on weekly box office. Only in the fifth week, valence can impact on box office of that week significantly. In addition, the volume and valence of word of mouse after the film release have significant interactive effects on the box office. That is, regardless of the valence, word of mouse is still the key factor affecting the box office. In other words, when valence is high, the more word of mouse, the better the box office; conversely, when the valence is low, the more word of mouse, the better the box office, too. Therefore, in the first four weeks after film released, the studio should create new topics and hotspots every week to improve the word of mouse volume. In the fifth week, studios should know the current situation of word of mouse timely, when encounter negative word of mouth, studios have supposed to try every means to decrease the damage of negative word of mouth. Furthermore, in order to encourage consumers to go to the cinema, studios should propagandize by all manner of media to build positive word of mouth. |
