| 摘要: | 本研究主要目的是以量化風險評估的概念，藉由區域毒性化學物質資料蒐集及所在地區氣象資訊及人口密度等參數，透過軟體模擬方式，探討臺灣某工業區洩漏風險。本文採用SAFETI風險評估軟體來進行量化風險評估的模擬運算，其中必須考慮的因素包含有：大氣溫度、濕度、風速、風向、化學物質種類、存量、洩漏情況、破孔大小、洩漏機率、人口密度等條件。研究中所蒐集的大部份資料都是由公部門在網站所公開的資訊。透過取得原始資料加以整理後，彙整SAFETI風險評估軟體所需要輸入的資料與形式。在本研究中大氣條件部分，則參考行政院環保署空氣品質網站中桃園市大園區觀測站所提供106年之氣象資料作為參數資料之依據，以風險值最高的氣象參數條件進行模擬，選擇此年度夏季白天之溫度、濕度、風速以及風向，均採用106年度六月至八月上午6點到下午6點之平均值。人口資料部分以桃園市政府民政局所提供的人口統計資料進行人口密度計算。工廠儲槽存放化學物質部分，係由行政院環保署北區環境事故專業技術小組調查之臺灣某工業區資料統計，由該工業區所申報的化學物質作為參考，其中主要參考資訊包括化學物質種類、儲存量、所在地點等資料。
本研究主要探討，發生毒性化學物質洩漏時，除造成生命與財產的損失外，亦可能造成環境污染；由其以高危害性之毒性化學物質，若發生外洩，將可能擴散至大氣而對鄰近環境與居民造成重大傷害。故如何在災害未發生之前能先瞭解毒化災害可能會發生的地點與可能的影響範圍，將有利於規劃救災的整備與強化各運作場所的管理以預防災害的發生，但以目前研究所設定的情況，在事故發生後較鄰近的區域，均無法達到社會風險容許範圍，故必須透過儲存量減少或強化安全管理的方式，降低社會風險至可接受的範圍。
The main purpose of this study is to quantify the concept of risk assessment, by collecting data on toxic chemical substances in the area, meteorological information and population density in the area, probing into the risk of leakage of an industrial area in Taiwan through software simulation method. In this study, the SAFETI risk assessment software is used to simulate the quantitative risk assessment, and the factors must be considered include: atmospheric temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, type of chemical substances, stock, leakage, hole size, leakage probability, population density and other conditions. Most of the data collected in the study are information that is disclosed by the company department on the website. The data and form needed to be entered by the risk assessment software of the SAFETI through the acquisition of raw data. In this study, the atmospheric conditions are based on the 106-year meteorological data provided by the Environmental Protection Agency's air quality website in Taoyuan, and the meteorological parameter conditions with the highest risk value are used to simulate the temperature, humidity, wind speed and wind direction of the summer day of the year. are based on the average of 106 years from June to August 6 o'clock to 18 o'clock. Population data sections are populated with population statistics provided by the Taoyuan City Household Registration Service Network. The chemical material stored in the storage tank of the factory is the data of an industrial area in Taiwan, which is investigated by the Environmental Incidents Specialist Team of the Northern Area, as a reference for the chemical substances declared in the industrial area, including information on the types of chemical substances, storage capacity and location.
This study mainly discusses that when toxic chemical substances leak, in addition to causing loss of life and property, may also cause environmental pollution; because of its a highly hazardous toxic chemical, if it leaks, it may spread to the atmosphere and cause serious damage to neighboring environments and residents. So how to understand the possible locations and possible effects of poisoning disasters before the disaster occurs, will be conducive to planning disaster relief and strengthening the management of various operations to prevent the occurrence of disasters, but in the current research settings, in the vicinity of the accident occurred in the adjacent areas, can't reach the scope of social risk tolerance, so it is necessary to reduce or strengthen the safety management in the way of reducing the social risk to an acceptable range. |
