| 摘要: | 觀光產業被視為二十一世紀的明星產業，更是賺取外匯的主要來源之一。2008年政黨輪替，兩岸關係趨於穩定，兩岸交流日益頻繁，同時帶動了其他相關產業商機，提供更多的工作機會。然而，2016年政黨再次輪替，兩岸關係生變，大陸官方對陸客來台觀光人數進行調控，本研究探討新政府上任前後，兩岸關係變動對觀光產業之衝擊。首先，以事件研究法探討2015年8月1日至2016年12月31日間陸客縮減的消息對台灣觀光類股價是否造成異常報酬，研究結果發現陸客縮減的消息對航空類、飯店類、旅行社股價皆造成顯著負向異常報酬。另外，再進一步藉由上市櫃觀光產業之總營業收入與各國籍旅客之關係，瞭解台灣觀光業對各國旅客的需求及陸客對於台灣觀光產業之實質影響。整體而言，陸客與上市櫃航空類、飯店類、旅行社之總營業收入之間呈現顯著正向關係，表示台灣旅遊業對陸客的依賴性。由於政黨再次輪替，陸客來台人次減少可能從暫時現象變成常態，長期而言，對台灣觀光產業弊大於利。
The tourism industry is regarded as the star industry in the 21st century. In addition, the income from foreign tourists has been one of the main sources of foreign exchange. In 2008, the cross-strait relations have been stabilized with the transfer of power between political parties and the ever increasing interactions between the two sides, thus creating business opportunities for the related industries as well as offering more employment. However, there’s once again the transfer of power between political parties in 2016 which somehow changed the cross-strait relations. The government of China started to regulate the number of tourists visiting Taiwan. This study aims to explore the impacts on the tourism industry of the said change in the cross-strait relations after the appointment of new government officials. First of all, we will determine if the news on the reduced number of Chinese tourists from August 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016 has caused the abnormal return in the tourism industries’ stocks through event study. The results showed that the news on the reduced number of Chinese tourists has caused an abnormally significant decline in the stock price of all related industries, namely, the airline industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies. In addition, we would further understand the financial impact that Chinese tourists have on Taiwan’s tourism industry by regression analysis the relationships between the total business incomes of the listed companies in the tourism industry and the tourists of different nations. In summary, there is a significant relationship between Chinese tourists and the business incomes of the listed companies in the airlines industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies, which indicates the dependence of Taiwan's tourism industry on the Chinese tourists. Due to the transfer of power between political parties, the reduced number of Chinese tourists might become normal from a tentative event, and in the long run, it will be disadvantageous for Taiwan’s tourism industry. |
