全球溫室氣體排放量有不斷增加的趨勢，而溫室氣體所造成的氣候變遷是二十一世紀全球所要面對最嚴峻的國際環保議題，因為氣候在全世界百分之八十的經濟活動，扮演著重要的決定性因素。本文以臺灣與中國為研究對象，採用1985年至2008年的年資料，檢測臺灣與中國的二氧化碳排放、能源消費、實質外國直接投資與實質國內生產毛額之長期均衡關係和變數間的Granger因果關係。實證結果顯示，在5%顯著水準下，臺灣之二氧化碳排放領先經濟成長有單向且為負的Granger因果關係，外國直接投資領先能源消費有單向且為正的Granger因果關係；在5%顯著水準下，中國之二氧化碳排放領先能源消費有單向且為負的Granger因果關係，經濟成長領先二氧化碳排放有單向且為負的Granger因果關係，經濟成長領先能源消費有單向且為負的Granger因果關係，經濟成長領先外國直接投資有單向且為正的Granger因果關係。若採用較寬鬆的10%顯著水準，中國的外國直接投資也領先能源消費有單向但為負向的Granger因果關係。本論文依據研究結果，僅針對臺灣提出政策建議，實證結果顯示在臺灣減少排放二氧化碳不會造成經濟衰退，因此政府可在不影響經濟的情況下，考慮課徵碳稅。
Global greenhouse gas emissions are rising. Climate change caused by greenhouse gases is the most severe global environmental issues facing the world in the twenty-first century. Climate plays a decisive role in eighty percent of the world's economic activities. In this thesis, Taiwan and China are my main interests, using the annual data from 1985 to 2008, I analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship and the Granger causality among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, foreign direct investment and gross domestic product for Taiwan and China, respectively. The empirical results show that, at the 5% significance level, carbon dioxide emissions negatively Granger cause economic growth and foreign direct investment positively Granger causes energy consumption in Taiwan. For China, at the 5% significance level, carbon dioxide emissions negatively Granger cause energy consumption; economic growth negatively Granger causes both carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption, but positively Granger causes foreign direct investment. If the 10% significance level is chosen, China’s foreign direct investment could negatively Granger cause energy consumption as well. The empirical results show that reducing emissions of carbon dioxide in Taiwan will not cause a recession, so carbon taxes may be a possible choice for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Taiwan.
