本文係利用統計科學方法建構企業（特別是家族企業）信用風險模型（Credit Risk Models），考慮經營權與所有權分開產生之代理問題，找出CEO專業經營影響公司績效之顯著變數。期能提供投資人、金融機構及利害關係人，事前預測可能發生財務風險之機率，降低財務風險損失（Financial Risk Loss），這事前預警與風險管理之效。實證分析上，利用K-S test，M-U test以及建立Logistic信用風險模型。實際結果發現，複迴歸模型之風險敏感度較高；會計資訊變數影響公司績效之主要指標有償債能力、經營能力指標；流動比率、利息保障倍數、固定資產週轉率、現金流量允當比率呈現顯著性負向影響，增加流動比率、利息保障倍數、固定資產週轉率、現金流量允當比率可降低信用風險發生的機率。研究建議，提高現金流量允當比率，增強專業經營能力；調整融資決策，提高償債能力，可降低發生信用風險機率。因此，本文之實證價值與管理意涵為，專業經理人調整融資決策，提高家族企業償債與經營能力，可降低信用風險發生的可能性。
This paper primarily used statistical methods to construct a credit risk models on family controlled companies, discussed the agency problem on management and ownership are separated. That made it be possible to predict in advance the probability of family firms CEO power, for investors, financial institutes and stakeholders to estimate financial risks, so that financial risk losses can be minimized while corporate performance can be improved Empirical analysis, the author built up a credit risk model using K-S test, M-U test and logistic regression models, and to determine variables that can significantly affect corporate performance. Finding, multiple regression model it's risk sensitivity relatively high, in the case accounting data variables that can affect corporate performance in terms of the solvency and the operating performance. Liquidity ratio, times interest earned, fixed asset turnover and cash flow adequacy ratio that presented impact of significantly negative, while increasing them as early as possible to reduce the financial risk. Our empirical results suggest the CEO should increase cash flow adequacy ratio and adjust financing decision have to be enhanced the solvency, the operating performance and could reduce credit risk implementation.
