臺灣重貼現率對所得利率物價匯率關聯性之探討

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Title:	臺灣重貼現率對所得利率物價匯率關聯性之探討 Correlation between Rediscount and Income Interest Rates Price Indexes and Exchange Rates in Taiwan
Authors:	馮惠珊余惠芳高偉娟
Contributors:	財金系
Keywords:	IS-LM模型 AD-AS模型重貼現率 BP理論 IS-LM model AD-AS model The rediscount rate BP curve
Date:	2013-05
Issue Date:	2017-08-30 11:03:51 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	中央銀行執行貨幣政策時，可以透過對法定存款準備率、重貼現率和公開市場操作的變動，影響一般金融機構之信用貸放能力，進而改變貨幣供給量及市場利率，使得社會的金融流動性及貨幣數量具有倍數擴張或收縮的效果，最後促使總體經濟產生正面之影響。由於重貼現率對經濟市場的影響十分值得探討，而且貨幣供給量及市場利率乃是經濟活動之最直接因素。國內外有關央行貨幣政策的研究非常多，而且國內已有許多學者運用各種不同事件的發生，來觀察貨幣政策對總體市場的變動影響，本研究則藉由重貼現率的歷史官方資料分析，以及SPSS研究法來探討重貼現率變動對總體經濟的影響。本研究主要利用凱因斯理論及統計科學方法建立迴歸模型，深入分析了解台灣重貼現率在經濟活動過程是否具有顯著影響力。實證結果顯示，重貼現率對GDP、物價、利率具有顯著水準且解釋能力較高；重貼現率與GDP、消費者物價指數呈現反向關係；重貼現率與匯率、利率呈現正向關係。本研究理論模型分析，依據IS-LM模型、AD-AS模型、BP對外均衡理論分析；重貼現率增加引起GDP、物價減少，利率、匯率增加與本研究台灣實證分析結果一致。 When implementing monetary policy, central bank often through the change in the deposit reserve ratios, the rediscount rate and the open market operations to affect the ability of credit granted loans of general financial institutions, and then change the money supply and market interest rates, making the financial liquidity and the effect of the quantity of money have multiples of expansion or contraction, and finally promote the overall economy positive impact. As the rediscount rate on the impact of the economic market is worth exploring, and the amount of money supply and market interest rates is the most direct factor of economic activity, the research of central bank's monetary policy at home and abroad are very numerous. Many domestic scholars use a variety of different events to observe the impact of monetary policy changes in the overall market. This study is intended to explore the impact of changes in the discount rate to the overall economy by the analysis of official history of the rediscount rate data and the SPSS analysis method. In this study, the Keynesian theory and the statistical methods are used to build a regression model and analyze in-depth to realize whether the rediscount rate in Taiwan has a significant influence in the process of economic activities.The empirical results show that the rediscount rate has a significant level of GDP, prices, interest rates and a high ability of explanation. The rediscount rate shows a reverse relationship to the GDP and the consumer price index and a positive relationship to the exchange rate and interest rates. The theoretical model analysis is based on the IS-LM model, AD-AS model and BP external equilibrium theory. The results show that increase of the rediscount rate will cause GDP and prices to be reduced, and cause interest rates and foreign exchange rates to be increased. They are consistent with the Taiwan empirical results shown in this study.
Relation:	華人前瞻研究 9:1 2013.05[民102.05] 頁1-14
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Banking & Finance ] periodical articles

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