生育率逐年降低，除造成人口老化、青壯年勞動人口不足，亦會造成青少年就學人口不足導致學校須進一步整併等問題，顯示我國對於生育率之預測問題應加以重視，以促進生育相關因應政策之訂定。文獻提出許多臺灣生育率之預測模式，然生育率之模式預測會受到我國特殊的生肖文化所影響，進而導致預測準確性降低，無法制定有效的相關因應對策。因此，本研究之研究目的在提供能調整生育率週期性問題的模式，使我國生育率模式預測能夠更準確。本研究以西元1949年～2004 年我國總生育率年資料，應用趨勢模式、整合之自我迴歸移動平均模式、解構模式進行我國總生育率之預測。研究結果顯示若欲進行總生育率整體趨勢之預測，解構模式為較佳且簡易之模式。本研究亦提出因應生育率續降之相關對策，謹供政府政策制定之參考。
The recent fall of fertility rate would not only boost ageing problem but also some problems such as the lack of young labor force as well as the merger of schools because of the lack of students, etc.. This circumstance revealed the importance of fertility forecast which would facilitate the related policies making. Several studies had demonstrated the fertility forecast models; nevertheless, the forecast accuracy of fertility would be influenced by the zodiacal influence which reduced the forecast accuracy and, hence, the effects of the related fertility policies. This study mainly provides the models which could account for the cyclic effect of the fertility to forecast more precisely. Several models such as the trend model, ARIMA, decomposition model were applied to forecast the annual fertility rate during 1949 to 2004. The result indicated that the decomposition model is a simpler and better model for predicting the trend of fertility rate. For the references of the policy maker of the government, this study also provides suggestions for the related policies regarding the decline in fertility.
