| 摘要: | 社會科學與自然科學的追求目的在於預測，而這些預測行為在本質基本上是相同的這一點成立的話，則社會科學的預測方法將產生一個自然科學無法掌握的變因，那就是實踐預測動作的行為人這項變因。人類作為價值觀主導的自主主體，不像實驗室裡所製造出來的封閉環境與受控制之條件。因此人類一方面行使預測行為，一方面又變成預測之所以不準確的主因，預測行為的目的與實際成果彼此矛盾。不過有趣的是，這種矛盾不斷的被人類忽略，人類依舊熱愛預測活動。因此本研究特別關注預測行為的實踐意涵。也就是採用卡爾‧巴柏在科學哲學方面的理性批判主義，來分析預測事項的技術層面，並且採用馬丁‧海德格對 於「此有」的詮釋現象學，來說明預測行為的內涵意義。將預測行為在科學哲學與社會科學哲學的兩大層面作出釐清與探討。然後再以漢斯‧約納斯對於環境的倫理學方法，來進行討論預測的概念付諸理念與實踐的層面。如果預測行為的背後意涵能夠被發掘，相信對於預測與人類行為的價值都是一種肯定。並且，如果能夠透過預測行為的分析來釐清人類行為的價值觀點，相信對於人類的存續發展與價值觀點都有更大的利益好處，也就是說，我們可以透過這樣的研究，來進一步完整地、清楚地定義人類的倫理價值觀點與未來行動主旨。
The purpose of both Social Science and Natural Science is to make predictions. If the basic essence of predictive behavior can be established as similar, the predictive techniques of social science can produce changes that can not be grasped by natural science, then the change in human behavior is the practical predictive action. The guiding value of humanity is independence, it can not be created in the closed environment of a laboratory. Therefore, on the one hand, humanity's behavior can be predicted, and on the other hand, it is the main cause of inaccurate predictions, therefore there is a contrast between the goal of predicting behavior and the practical results. Interestingly enough, this contradiction is constantly ignored by people, and humanity still loves to make predictions. I focused in particular on the practical implications of predicted behavior. Karl Popper deals with scientific rational criticism, and analyzes the technical aspect of forecasting. Heidegger relies on phenomenological interpretation to explain the internal meanings of predictive behavior. He clarifies and examines predictive behavior within the Philosophy of Science and Social Science. Hans Jonas employs environmental ethical methods to discuss the idea and practice of the principle of prediction. If the meaning behind predictive behavior can be revealed, I believe that prediction and the value of human behavior can both be confirmed. If we can clarify the values and perspectives of human behavior by analyzing predictive behavior, I believe that it will greatly benefit the continued development of humanity. As a result, through this type of research, we can continue to improve the entire planet, and clearly define human ethical values and subjects for future action. |
