| 摘要: | 本研究以臺灣農林漁牧業、工業、電力燃氣業(能源業)、運輸業、服務業在1990年至2014年的二氧化碳排放量和產值為研究對象。以環境顧志耐曲線為研究方法，以探究臺灣數個產業的二氧化碳排放和產值之間，是否已經達到了「先增加，後趨緩」的倒U型關係，並在原始的模型中，加入其他有影響可能的變數。又以兩種計量方法分析；追蹤資料固定效果分析法檢定，在假定各產業固定的情形下(產業效果)進行分析；其次設定虛擬變數，以服務業為比較基準，進行分析。本研究得到的檢定結果如下：
(一)產業固定效果的分析結果：
1.臺灣產業的碳排放受到能源使用量、國內實質儲蓄影響。
2.臺灣產業的碳排放和各產業產出之間的關聯，以產業別追蹤資料分析，其關聯不大。
3.國際能源價格(石油、天然氣、煤)對國內各產業影響小。
(二)虛擬變數分析法的分析結果：
1.服務業環境顧志耐曲線之總排放量較其他產業低。
2.以虛擬變數分析考慮各部門碳排放差異，產出和碳排放之間有倒U型的EKC關係。
3.各部門能源使用量對其碳排放量有顯著影響。
4.國內實質儲蓄對碳排放量有顯著性影響。
This research by analyzes the correlation between CO2 emission and real GDP. Using 1990-2014 data of CO2 emissions and real GDP of five industry sectors in Taiwan (Agricultural, Forestry, Fishery and Husbandry sector), Industry sector, Electricity and gas sector, Transportation and warehousing sector, Service sector. To
In this research, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis correlation analyzes for the CO2 emissions and GDP in five industrial sectors in Taiwan to make empirical inference. Two econometric methods are used to analyze. One is Panel data method by assuming industry sectors are fixed to test. And the other is to set sector dummy variable.
Fix Effect test results:
1. CO2 emissions of industry sectors are affected by energy consumption and domestic real savings.
2. The correlation between total CO2 emissions in the five sectors and real GDP in Taiwan are not significant.
3. The affect of international energy prices to sector total CO2 emissions is not significant.
Dummy Variable results:
1. According to estimated result of intercept and intercept dummy variables, the intercept for the total emissions of service sector is lower than other sectors.
2. Considering in Dummy Variable analysis, real GDP and CO2 emissions have inverted U-shaped EKC relationship.
3. The total amount of energy consumption in each sectors significantly affects total CO2¬ emissions in the five sectors.
4. The domestic real savings have significantly affected CO2 emissions. |
