本研究以高雄縣六龜地區為研究區域，蒐集當地土地利用之歷史變遷與當地環境及社會經濟等資料，建立地理資料庫，並以logit模式分析林地變遷的影響因子。比較六龜地區1977及1994年土地利用的情況，發現期間的主要變遷為農地回復為林地，但亦有部份林地被變更成為農地。分析結果顯示海拔低、坡度平緩、距道路近的地區較容易被開發為農地，而村中的農牧戶數愈多，林地被開發的可能性也更高。反之，海拔高、坡度陡的農地則較容易被放棄農用而回復為林地，而村中的農牧人口數愈少，農地回復為林地的可能性也更高。
This study took the Liukuei area of Kaohsiung County as the study area. Data on historic land uses, as well as the environmental and socioeconomic conditions of the study area were collected to develop a GIS database, and logit models were used to examine the possible factors contributing to the observed forestland changes. Comparisons of the land use conditions of Liukuei area in 1977 and 1994 showed that the major change during the period was the recovery of forestlands from farmlands. However, some of the forestlands were also converted into farmlands during the same time. Results of the logit models showed that forestlands located at lower elevation, without steep slope, and in the proximity of roads were more likely to be converted into farmlands. The probabilities were further increased at villages having more agricultural families. On the other hand, farmlands located at higher elevation, with steeper slope, and at villages having fewer farmers were more likely to be abandoned or reforested.
