| 摘要: | 本文試圖以世界銀行提供的國內生產毛額數據作為測量一國國力之指標，並依各國過去的經濟成長率，推估至2025年時，世界與亞洲體系內各主要強權之相對國力的可能消長。由於中國大陸的經濟成長速度遠超過其他強權，因此，未來其國際地位將持續提升，甚至可能趕上美國。根據新現實主義的論述，當兩個主要強國的權力達到均衡時，將有利於維持國際體系的和平與穩定。然而，「權力移轉理論」卻聲稱當後進的挑戰者趕上既有霸權時，衝突爆發的可能性將大幅上升，此際能否避免衝突，得視新興強權是否願意接受既有的國際秩序而定。依此而論，美國可否成功地協助中國大陸融入現有的國際社會，並將其納入形塑國際秩序的「最小獲勝聯盟」，將是維繫和平的關鍵。
Based on World Bank's World Development Indicators and previous economic growth rates, the authors estimate the relative rise and fall of all major powers in the global and Asian international systems from now to 2025. Since the PRC grows faster than any other ones, it will play a more important role in the international system, and probably overtake the United States. Neo-realists believe that the balance of power between two major powers can maintain peace and stability, but the power transition theorists argue that when a rising challenger reaches power parity with the original dominant power, a war between them is likely. Conflict can be avoided if the challenger accepts the international order today. Therefore, if the U.S. successfully helps China to become a member of the existing international society and the ”minimum winning coalition” will be the key to peace. |
