台灣對越南貿易主要影響因素之探討

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Title:	台灣對越南貿易主要影響因素之探討 The Main Influence Factors of Taiwan to VietNam Trade
Authors:	蔡雨珊
Contributors:	國際貿易學系
Keywords:	雙對數複迴歸模型匯率台灣對越南貿易 double-log multiple regression Model exchange rate Taiwan to vietNam
Date:	2016-06
Issue Date:	2016-08-11 12:50:48 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	台灣係屬海島型經濟，對外貿易的依存度甚高。隨著台灣經濟的發展，台灣國內市場的工資高昂，國內投資環境惡化造成廠商沒辦法追求生產的利潤，紛紛移往中國大陸及東南亞等地區投資。本文研究期間選自1990至2014年，以雙對數複迴歸模型(double-log multiple regression model)探討台灣對越南貿易主要影響因素。研究結果顯示：直接投資對進、出口及貿易總額皆具顯著之正相關，此乃意味著直接投資對進、出口及貿易總額皆具互補關係。而匯率對進口具顯著之正相關，台灣GDP對越南進口具顯著之正相關。匯率對出口額具顯著之正關係，而越南GDP對出口也具顯著之正相關。由此顯示台灣對越南出口具顯著的所得效果。匯率對整體貿易也具顯著之正相關，而越南GDP對整體貿易顯著之正關係，至於台灣GDP對整體貿易則未具顯著。 Taiwan belongs to the island economy, dependence on foreign trade is very high. With the development of Taiwan's economy, Taiwan's domestic market, high wages, environmental degradation caused by domestic investment firms can not profit production. Metastasis to Mainland China and Southeast Asia investment. Selected from 1990 to 2014,based on double logarithmic multiple regression model to analyze the main factors of Taiwan to Vietnam trade. Research results show: that direct investment import, on export, and overall trade were significantly positively correlated. direct investment on import, export, and overall trade is associated with complementary effect. Taiwan GDP imports were significant positive correlation. that direct investment on exports were significantly positively correlated is associated with Complementary effect. The exchange rate on export were significant positive correlation. Vietnam GDP on exports were significant positive correlation. Taiwan exports to Vietnam With the resulting effect. that direct investment on overall trade were significantly positively correlated is associated with Complementary effect. the exchange rate on overall trade were significant positive correlation. Vietnam GDP on overall trade were significant positive correlation. As to the impact of Taiwan's GDP on overall trade is not a significant.
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