| 摘要: | 碳循環、溫室效應、及全球氣候變遷目前已成為當代生態環境和社會與經濟發展最具關鍵性的議題，世界先進國家已將『節能減碳』和『熱島效應』等問題視為未來城鄉發展及都市永續規畫所關注的重要研究課題。近年來，森林生態系碳吸存的功能漸受重視，且森林(綠地)已被認定可減緩溫室氣體排放並扮演碳吸存的重要角色，因此，應用地面調查或遙測技術進行森林碳吸存的研究備受關切。惟「跨政府組織氣候變遷專門委員會」(IPCC) 建議應用遙測技術於國家土地利用、土地利用變化的實證及林業碳庫的評估，以提供氣候變遷公約之評估需求。
遙測技術應用於景觀監測，具備能以即時、有效、大尺度的方式估算植生淨初級生產力(i.e., 碳吸存)之功能，此外也可以進行長期的監測活動，掌握碳吸存量的變動狀況，故本研究藉由遙測影像處理軟體，進行植生指數和植生淨初級生產力之估算，進而搭配AMOS (Analysis of Moment Structures) 結構方程式軟體進行一連串的驗證式研究。因此，本研究除了利用景觀生態指數，先分析大台北都會區(含大台北地區以及台北市地區)2002與2006年之綠地結構狀態，以及2002與2006年間之綠地變遷之外，進而根據遙測技術估算的2002與2006年碳吸存量，應用結構方程模式探討大台北都會區綠地和碳吸存之關聯性及二者間之相互作用，期提供大台北都會區未來綠地空間規劃或綠地計畫研擬修訂之參考。
研究結果指出，大台北地區以及台北市2002至2006年間之綠地空間結構呈現明顯的變遷情形。大台北地區與台北市因都市發展與綠地面積變遷之差異，選用為研究之景觀指數有些微不同，但皆採用與綠地具高相關之指數作為研究之變數；同時，應用AMOS軟體程式建構的結構方程模式，就模型之顯著性機率值、卡方自由度比值、模型與觀察資料的契合度、以及模式內部品質與外部品質之效度評估而言，均顯示應用該結構方程模式分析大台北都會區綠地和碳吸存間之關聯性，是可行的。
Carbon cycle, greenhouse effect and global climate change have become the most critical issues of the contemporary ecological environment and social and economic development. The world's developed countries have regarded "saving energy and reducing carbon" and "heat island" as an important research topic for future rural development and sustainable urban planning. Recently, carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems function is getting attention, and forests (green space) have been identified to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and plays an important role in carbon sequestration. Therefore, applications of ground survey and remote sensing in forest carbon sequestration have been growing much concern. However, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that remote sensing is a useful, timely, effective and large-scale technique to estimate carbon amounts for verifying national land use and land-use change (IPCC, 2003).
In addition to a useful, timely, effective and large-scale approach to estimate forest net primary productivity (i.e., carbon sequestration), remote sensing is also a long-term monitoring technique in landscape application, for example, carbon sequestration monitoring. Therefore, this study applies image processing software to calculate vegetation index (e.g., NDVI) and estimate the net primary productivity, and then perform a series of confirmatory studies with AMOS structural equation modeling. The study area is Taipei metropolitan area with two urban forms (i.e., Taipei City District and Taipei Metropolitan District including Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung). The research processes include the analysis of green-land structure of Taipei metropolitan area in 2002 and 2006 using landscape index, the monitoring of green-land change between 2002 and 2006, and the estimation of carbon sequestration in 2002 and 2006 using remote sensing. The objective is to investigate the relationship between green-land and carbon sequestration based on structural equation modeling and then extend the result for a reference of future urban planning and project revision of green-land in Taipei metropolitan area.
The results indicate that the green-land structures of Taipei City District and Taipei Metropolitan District are significantly different between 2002 and 2006. Due to this reason, there are a little difference in the selection of landscape indices. However, the selected indices are strongly correlated with green-land. As for the structural equation modeling established by the AMOS software, the results illustrate that the relationship exists between green-land and carbon sequestration. Meanwhile, the relationship investigation using structural equation modeling is feasible according to the following assessments: the significant probability of the established model, the degree freedom ratio of chi-square, the model fit between the model and the observed data, and the validity of the of internal and external quality assessment of the established model. |
