氣候變遷為影響農作物生長及產量的重要因素之一，本研究即以The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)作物模式評估氣候變遷對水稻生長及產量的衝擊，並利用氣候敏感度分析探討氣候因素對水稻產量的影響程度。又結合大氣環流模式及地理資訊系統，以預測在未來氣候及不同氣候情境下，臺灣水稻產量的變化趨勢。結果顯示，由水稻生長特性實測資料之驗證，發現DSSAT模式可適用於臺灣氣候，實測資料和DSSAT模擬值有極佳相關性；其中，生質量之相關係數皆可達0.9，產量約為0.7-0.8之間。增溫將使水稻生育日數縮短，影響水稻穀粒充實而減產。日射量直接影響水稻生質量累積，與比葉面積成反比。大氣二氧化碳濃度升高使水稻葉片輻射利用效率提高，且因氣孔導度下降而減少蒸發散量。至於氣候變遷下臺灣水稻產量之空間分布，北部種植之水稻有明顯減產現象，中南部則有些微增產，惟臺灣全區之平均值則仍然呈現減產趨勢，預估於2020年、2050年及2080年分別減產3.5%、4.7%及7%。
Climate change is one of the primary determining factors on the growth and yield of a crop. In this study, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software package was used to assess the impact of climate change on the growth and yield of rice in Taiwan. The climate sensitivity analysis was also used to evaluate the effects of climate factors on rice yield. Incorporating with the general circulation model (GCM) and geographic information system (GIS), future climate status and rice yield under different climate scenarios were predicted. Result indicated that DSSAT model was suitable for Taiwan climate analyses using the measured data of rice growth characteristics. The measured and predicted values had a good relationship; for example, the correlation coefficients were greater than 0.9 for biomass and was in rage 0.7-0.8 for yield. Results further showed that the increasing temperature would decrease the growth days that caused the reduction of rice yield due to the insufficient grain filling. Solar radiation affected the biomass accumulation, and negatively correlated with specific leaf area. The elevated CO2 concentration improved the radiation use efficiency of rice leaves and decreased the evapotranspiration rate with the closure of stomata aperture. The results of spatial distribution of rice yield revealed that, under climate change in the future, yield will significantly lose in the northern region while slightly increase in the southern part. However, the average yield of rice cultivated in Taiwan will be reduced by 3.5%, 4.7% and 7.0% in 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively.
