| 摘要: | 自中國大陸1978年改革開放以來，其廉價勞動力及廣大內需市場吸引各國爭相前往投資，亦是台灣對外投資最大地區，2010年台灣對中國大陸投資金額，佔台灣總對外投資金額甚至超過80%。而投資對貿易的影響，過往學者研究結論眾說紛紜無一定論。本文研究期間選自1991至2013年，以層級回歸分析探討台灣科技業赴大陸直接投資對貿易之影響，並設簽訂ECFA前後之虛擬變數探討ECFA對兩岸貿易之影響。
研究結果顯示自變數台灣對中國大陸直接投資，對台灣科技業出口大陸、自中國大陸進口與兩岸科技業貿易皆呈現正向顯著關係，說明台灣科技業對大陸投資對貿易有互補效果；而虛擬變數簽訂ECFA前後，則對於科技業出口、進口及兩岸貿易皆無顯著影響。
Since reform and opening up in China in 1978, the majority of domestic market and cheap labor costs attract lots of foreign investment. In 2010 the amount of Taiwan’s investment in China accounting more than 80% of Taiwan's total outward investment. There are many research results between trade and investment. This study aims to explore the relationship between Taiwan's technology industry investment in China and Cross-Strait trade during 1991 to 2013, by using hierarchical regression. We also set dummy variable to probe the effect of signing of ECFA.
The results show that there is a positive relationship between the independent variable, Taiwan direct investment in China, and depend variables, Taiwan's technology industry exports to China and imported from China and Cross-Strait trade. It means that Taiwan's technology industry investment in China for Cross-Strait trade has a complementary effect. The dummy variable, before and after signing of ECFA, shows no significant relationship on Technology Industry trade between Taiwan and China. |
