| 摘要: | 日前有台籍旅客至大陸遊玩，發生不幸重大車禍意外，造成多人死亡或失蹤及多人輕重傷悲劇，喚起國人對旅遊平安險的重視。在2014年5月份自由時報報導赴中國旅遊卻墜江造成傷亡的五福旅行社，被質疑塞進購物行程，因趕行程而釀出旅遊意外，旅行公會全聯會秘書長表示，低價團不代表不安全，五福旅行社副總強調，這趟行程中雖安排三處購物點，但意外是氣候因素造成，與價格應沒有關係。團費競爭的問題在於，團費低，旅遊品質就一定較差嗎？最適團費較高旅客在行程中遭遇旅行社可控制的風險因素就一定較低嗎?
本文不同於近十年內探討旅行社業競爭的文獻之研究方法皆使用「計量迴歸法」進行實證分析，本文以「純數理理論」方式來建構「理論模型」，分別針對與現實社會相近的單層旅遊供給鏈和雙層旅遊供給鏈，探討旅遊品質和最適團費是否也受到影響。
本文研究結果皆反駁了低價團不代表不安全的旅行社業者說詞，模型推導出，團費低，則旅遊行程遭遇的人為意外風險必定提高。而團費高的情況下，旅行社可事先做出許多預防措施，讓人為風險不要發生，所以人為意外風險自然會降低。然而隨機因素導致的風險損失，就不是人為可控制和預測的，所以旅行社就不一定以降低團費來招攬遊客，本地和外地旅行社彼此間只要有相互合作關係，不論發生旅遊行程遭遇的隨機因素或人為因素導致的風險損失，本地旅行社必定以降低團費因應。本地和外地旅行社決定的團費，必定與旅遊時間的淡旺季呈現正向關係，例如低團價(淡季)，旅遊品質水準一定較低。
Recently, a Taiwanese visitors to the mainland to play, a major accident occurred unfortunate accident, which resulted in many dead or missing and more than a light injuries tragedy, arouse people of the importance of travel insurance. In May 2014 he went to the Liberty Times reported that China's tourism has caused casualties Wufu fall river travel agency, was questioned into shopping trips, because travel and spawn in time travel accident, travel guild whole Federation Secretary-General said that does not mean low-cost group insecurity, Deputy stressed Five travel agencies, tour itinerary although arrange three shopping, but accidents caused by climatic factors, and price should not matter. Fare competition problem is low fares, tourism will certainly poor quality it? The optimal fare passengers suffered higher risk factors can be controlled in a travel agency trip will certainly lower it?
This article is different from the competition in the last ten years the travel industry to explore research methods literature of all use "metering regression" empirical analysis, this paper "pure mathematical theory" approach to construct "theoretical model" for the social reality of the single were similar layer tourism supply chain and double tourism supply chain, quality and optimal tour of tourism is also affected.
Results of this study do not represent all groups rejected the cheap unsafe travel industry rhetoric, was deduced, fares low, the risk of accidents is human travel experience is bound to increase. The next tour is high, the travel agency may be made in advance many precautions, people risk not happen, so the man would naturally reduce the risk of accidents. However, the risk of loss due to random factors, it is not man-made controllable and predictable, so the travel agency is not necessarily to lower fares to attract tourists, local and foreign travel agencies to cooperate with each other as long as there is mutual relationship, regardless of the occurrence of random factors encountered tours or risk of loss caused by human factors, local travel agencies must respond in order to reduce fares. Foreign travel agencies and tour local decisions, will exhibit a positive relationship with the travel time peak seasons, such as low group price (low season), tourism quality standards must be low. |
