應用層級分析法與多元羅吉斯迴歸分析積體電路產業不同營運模式之財務避險工具比較

文化大學機構典藏 CCUR > 商學院 > 財務金融學系 > 博碩士論文 > Item 987654321/29935

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题名:	應用層級分析法與多元羅吉斯迴歸分析積體電路產業不同營運模式之財務避險工具比較 Application of AHP and Multinomial Logistic Regression to Analysis of Hedging Tool between Two Business Models: A Case of Integrated Circuit Industry
作者:	黃炳輝 Huang, Ping-Hui
贡献者:	財務金融學系
关键词:	利率風險衍生性金融商品避險多元羅吉斯層級分析法商業模式 interest risk derivatives hedge multinomial logistic analytic hierarchy process business model
日期:	2015-06
上传时间:	2015-07-28 14:31:52 (UTC+8)
摘要:	因應國際金融快速整合趨勢下，國內企業操作衍生性金融商品進行避險已相當普遍，過去研究多聚焦於外匯風險，鮮少探討與經營成本高度相關的利率風險，因此，本研究將探討台灣半導體產業虛擬整合與垂直整合商業模式面對各種利率風險時之避險工具選擇。本研究分為以下四階段，首先，透過文獻探討歸納影響經理人評選利率避險商品之相關因素並應用層級分析法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)建立兩商業模式之架構；接著，藉由multinomial logistic來實證影響因素對避險商品之效果；再來，整合multinomial logistic與AHP來評選台灣半導體產業面對利率風險時之最適避險商品；最後，比較兩商業模式之研究結果找出差異並加以探討。冀希本研究結果在學術上建立一整合multinomial logistic-AHP模式與應用流程。在實務上，提出一套整合性的評估工具讓相關企業與投資人在操作避險商品時之決策參考。 In response to the trend of the rapid international financial integration, it is a common practice for Taiwan’s enterprises to operate financial derivatives for hedging. However, most of the previous literature focuses on foreign exchange risk, while sel-dom discusses the interest risk of high level of correlation with operating costs. Hence, this study will discuss about vertical integration and virtual integration business models of Taiwan semiconductor industry choosing hedging tools when facing interest risk. There are four steps in my research. First, through literature review to sum up the in-fluence on the factor of choosing hedging instruments for interest rate by managers and using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to build the framework of two-business mod-el. To continue, using Multinomial Logistic to empirical the hedging products to in-fluence by the factor. Moreover, integrated Multinomial Logistic and AHP to select the optimum hedging product when facing interest risk in Taiwan semiconductor industry. Finally, comparing two empirical results of two-business model and finding the differ-ence. It is expected that the findings of this research can provide a mode of Multinomial Logistic-AHP application procedures in academic. In practical, providing a complete evaluation tools for relevant enterprises and investors with a reference in making deci-sions for using financial products for hedging purposes.
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