在台灣股市中，三大法人由於挾著巨額的資金投入市場，因此三大法人於台灣股市中的買賣行為常常左右著市場的漲跌。三大法人之中又以外資所占的交易額比重最為龐大，本研究解析外資於台灣股市中的籌碼布局，來協助投資人規劃個股投資的投資決策。
由於外資對市值占大盤比重較高之股票投資較多，故本研究以台灣50及其中常見之39支個股及台指期貨外資籌碼來探討台指期貨外資籌碼與台灣股市中個股股價之關係及台灣股市中個股現貨外資籌碼與個股股價間之關係。最終透過實驗結果來觀察外資籌碼對個股之影響。
研究結果顯示，透過台指期貨外資籌碼預測個股走勢走多機率以5日為區間最佳，走空以1日為區間最佳。當外資對個股進行連續買超時，於隔日再買超之機率以近兩日價格連續上漲且近兩日外資買超量連續增加時、近兩日價格連續上漲且近兩日外資買超量為減少再增加時、近兩日價格連續上漲且近兩日外資買超量為增加再減少時三種狀態之表現為最佳，而隔日價格上漲機率以連續買超3天時為最佳。
In the stock market of Taiwan, since the three institutional investors hold huge sums of funds into the market, the trading of the three institutional investors in Taiwan’s stock market often affect the ups and downs of the market. Among the three institutional investors, the transaction amount proportion of the foreign institutional investors is the most. Also, the turnover proportion of the foreign institutional investors rises in the market year after year. Therefore, if the capital distribution of the foreign institutional investors for shares in Taiwan’s stock market can be analyzed and realized, we will be able to assist investors with their planning of investment decisions in stock investment through the analyzed information.
In this study, 39 common stock data in Taiwan 50 Index and foreign investment capital data of Taiwan Stock Index Futures were taken as the sample to conduct two experiments. The first purpose is to investigate the relation between foreign investment capital data of Taiwan Stock Index Futures and the stock price in Taiwan stock market. The second purpose is to explore the relation between foreign investment capital in the individual stock and the stock price in Taiwan stock market. Finally, through the ex-perimental results, the impact of foreign investment capital on individual stocks is ob-served.
