山腳斷層情境地震模擬之研究

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题名:	山腳斷層情境地震模擬之研究 Numerical Simulation Study of the Sanchiao Fault Earthquake Scenarios
作者:	王以旻
贡献者:	地學研究所地質組
关键词:	山腳斷層台北盆地情境地震三維數值模擬 Sanchiao Fault Taipei Basin Simulation earthquake scenarios Three-dimensional numerical simulation
日期:	2013
上传时间:	2014-10-22 15:37:59 (UTC+8)
摘要:	地震是造成台北都會區大規模破壞的主要天然災害之一，而山腳斷層就位於台灣北部之台北盆地西緣，其結合海域與陸地之斷層總長超過50公里，且緊鄰人口密集的台北都會區。過去四十萬年來由於山腳斷層的活動，使盆地內第三紀沉積岩的基盤持續下陷，導致盆地西北側第四紀沉積物最厚可達700公尺以上，然而在台灣北部GPS測量下，山腳斷層兩側之位移量每年可達5~8公厘，在未來山腳斷層仍有再次活動的機會。本研究根據Kojiro Irikura與Hiroe Miyake在2010年發表之強地動預估作業準則之步驟（RECIPE），遵循此步驟來建立山腳斷層破裂模型。主要的特徵震源參數包括：斷層長度、破裂面積、地震矩、斷層面上之錯動量、滑移集中區面積以及破裂起始點等，依照這些參數來推估山腳斷層可能產生地震矩規模Mw 7.0以上之地震。進行三維震波模擬時採用譜元素法（Spectral-Element Method，SEM），模擬結果指出最大地表加速度（Peak ground acceleration，PGA）沿著斷層線之數值明顯較大，且盆地效應在所有假設破裂情況下均扮演重要的角色，其會造成震波振幅的放大與振動持續時間延長。為了增加模擬的普遍性與廣泛度，研究中假設多種可能的地震情境。其中以破裂方向由北往南的情境較為嚴重，由於震波之方向性加上盆地效應，所導致台北盆地內地表加速度較大，並分布集中於盆地的西北側，明顯表現出地震發生時與盆地沉積物有密切的關係。透過統計來分析研究結果，此數值模擬結果將可提供地震防災與地震工程重要的參考數據。 Earthquake is one of the major natural disasters caused massive destruction in the Taipei metropolitan area. Sanchiao fault is a western boundary fault of the Taipei basin located in northern Taiwan, close to the densely populated Taipei metropolitan area. Combined with the marine and terrestrial parts, the total fault length of Sanchiao fault could over 50 kilometers. For the past 400,000 years, the bedrock of Tertiary sedimentary basin continued to subside due to the activity of the Sanchiao fault, resulting the thickness of Quaternary sediments of the basin up to 700 meters in the northwest side. Displacement measured by GPS in northern Taiwan, on both sides of the Sanchiao fault, revealed up to 5-8 mm per year of movement. It may be reactivated in the future. This study is based on the “RECIPE” for predicting strong ground motion proposed by Kojiro Iriura and Hiroe Miyake （2011）. The characteristic source parameters include: fault length, rupture area, seismic moment, the fault plane momentum slip, asperity and propagation pattern of rupture etc. Based on these assumptions in the characteristic source model, Sanchiao fault has been inferred to have the potential to produce an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) larger than 7.0. Three-dimensional seismic simulation using Spectral-Element Method (SEM), the 3D spectral-element method simulation results indicate that Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is significantly stronger along the fault trace. The basin effects play an important role when wave propagates in the Taipei basin which cause seismic wave amplified and prolong the shaking for a very long time. In order to increase the universality and breadth of simulation study, we assumed multiple of possible earthquake scenarios. Among them, rupture direction from north to south of the situation is comparatively serious. Owing to the shock direction as well as the basin effect, Taipei basin has high PGA, especially on the northwest side. This clearly shows that it is closely related to the basin sediments. Through statistical analysis, the results of this numerical simulation will provide important earthquake disaster and earthquake engineering reference data.
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