本文目的係建立電子業財務預警模型(Financial Early-Warning Model)，除利用公司財務資訊變數分析外，加入公司股權結構變數，以董監事持股變數作解釋變數，提前預測出公司發生財務風險之可能性。研究發現財務預警模型以財務比率變數較具解釋能力，而股權變數與危機發生具顯著關係，可提高預警模型之預測正確率；一般電子業產品生命週期較短，產業變化迅速，個別公司財務結構受營業收入影響較大。實證結果顯示，在公司危機發生前三年，危機徵兆尚不顯著，財務預警模型危機預測正確率僅能達77.2%，前二年提高至87.3%，前一年可達92.4%。研究結果提供投資人、金融機構、學術研究與政府單位等投資選股策略與決策分析之參考，降低金融機構授信給可能發生財務危機公司的風險，達到事前預警與風險管理之效。
The purpose of this paper to establish the electronics industry financial Early-Warning Model, in addition to the use of the company's financial information variable analysis, and joined the company ownership structure variables to directors' shareholding variables as explanatory variables to predict in advance the company's financial risk possible. The study found the Financial Early-Warning Model to explain the more financial ratio variable capacity, and a significant relationship between ownership variables and crisis; can improve the overall prediction accuracy rate prediction Model. General electronics products generally short life cycle, rapid changes in the industry, and the financial structure of individual companies affected by the large revenues. The empirical results show, three years before the crisis is not yet significant signs of crisis, Financial Early-Warning Model crisis to predict the correct rate only reach 77.2%, improving to 87.3% two years ago, up to 92.4% the previous year. The results provide investors with reference to financial institutions, government agencies and other academic research and investment strategy and stock selection decision analysis, to reduce the credit risk of financial institutions, the financial crisis, the company's potential to achieve effective advance warning and risk management.
