總體經濟因素對反傾銷申報的衝擊-韓國及印度

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题名:	總體經濟因素對反傾銷申報的衝擊-韓國及印度 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Number of Antidumping Filings: Evidence from Republic of South Korea and India
作者:	胡亞
贡献者:	國際貿易學系
关键词:	South Korea India China United States European Union Japan Taiwan Dumping Antidumping Exchange rate GDP Unemployment
日期:	2014
上传时间:	2014-10-07 09:46:57 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本碩士論文審查反傾銷申請和宏觀經濟因素，特別是在實際匯率的變化，每年的實際GDP增長率和失業率之間的關係。本研究的目的是尋找韓國和印度對自己的反傾銷申請對他們的前5個目標國家的宏觀經濟決定因素的發展趨勢。有針對性的夥伴國家，包括中國，俄羅斯，美國，日本和台灣在韓國的情況下，與中國，歐盟，韓國，台灣和美國在印度的情況。一個普通最小二乘估計和負二項式回歸方法來估計由韓國和印度發起的反傾銷行動的宏觀經濟決定因素。我們發現，實際匯率，GDP增長，失業率和對反傾銷申請統計學顯著影響。根據該負二項分佈估計，一個增加一個百分點，在進口國國內生產總值增長率的變化由0.0655％降低申請。進口國貨幣的一個百分點名義貶值增加申請量0.0526％，一個百分點的進口國貨幣的實際貶值降低了申請量0.0621％，0.1033由％增加一個百分點，失業率在進口國增加申請。 This master thesis examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors, in particular the change in the real exchange rate, real annual GDP growth and unemployment rate. The purpose of this study is to find trends of the macroeconomic determinants of South Korea and India on their antidumping filings against their top 5 targeted countries. The targeted partner countries include China, Russia, United States, Japan and Taiwan in the case of South Korea, and China, the European Union, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States in the case of India. An ordinary least estimation and negative binomial regression approach is used to estimate the macroeconomic determinants of the antidumping actions initiated by Korea and India. We find that real exchange rate, GDP growth, and unemployment have statistically significant impact on antidumping filings. According to the negative binomial estimates, a one percentage point increase in importing country GDP growth change decreases filings by 0.0655%. One percentage point nominal depreciation of the importing country currency increases filings by 0.0526%, one percentage point real depreciation in importing country currency reduces filings by 0.0621%, one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate in the importing country increase filings by 0.1033 %.
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