| 摘要: | 本研究為探討2012年總統大選，臺灣選民對「兩岸政見議題立場」與其「媒體使用行為」、「投票決定」的關係，以及和選民使用的媒體對兩岸政見議題的報導立場的關聯。另外，基於大陸民眾對本次大選的特殊關切，在本研究中同時亦就大陸民眾對「兩岸政見議題看法」及其「臺灣媒體使用行為」做概括的涉獵，以期能對臺灣選民方面的研究結果獲致旁證的效果。本研究經透過四報於選舉期間四個月對「兩岸政見議題（九二共識、ECFA、臺灣共識）」報導立場的內容分析、臺灣地區選民的出口民調與電話訪談、大陸地區問卷調查與深度訪談等研究方法，以及因素分析、卡方分析、多元洛基迴歸分析等統計分析，以檢測下列四項研究假設是否成立？包括，研究假設一：中國時報、聯合報、自由時報、蘋果日報等報紙媒體對「兩岸政見議題的報導立場」有顯著差異；研究假設二：選民「媒體使用行為」與其對「兩岸政見議題的看法」、「投票決定」有顯著關聯；研究假設三：選民對「兩岸政見議題的立場」與其使用的媒體對「兩岸政見議題的報導立場有顯著關聯；研究假設四：大陸民眾對「兩岸政見議題的看法」與其「臺灣媒體使用行為」有顯著關聯。研究結果獲致如下之主要研究發現與結論：
一、主要研究發現
（一）中國時報、聯合報、自由時報、蘋果日報等四大報紙媒體對「兩岸政見議題（九二共識、ECFA、臺灣共識）」的報導立場方面，其中對「九二共識」、「ECFA」等議題的報導立場有顯著不同，惟在「臺灣共識」議題的報導立場上並無顯著不同。
（二）選民「媒體使用行為」與其「兩岸政見議題立場」、「投票決定」有顯著關聯，其中與「兩岸政見議題立場」的關聯性高於「投票決定」。
（三）選民對「兩岸政見議題的立場」與其使用的媒體對「兩岸政見議題的報導立場」有顯著關聯。
（四）大陸民眾對「兩岸政見議題看法」（包括：「對兩岸論述之支持」、「對兩岸協議之支持」、「對兩岸現況之不利」以及「對兩岸進展之有利」等層面）與其「臺灣媒體使用行為」有顯著關聯。
二、結論
（一）大眾傳播媒介對2012年總統大選的影響，主要對兩岸民眾的政治訊息的認知、意見和態度層面，對於臺灣選民投票行為僅造成些微影響。事實上，此次大選無論在「兩岸政見議題立場」或「投票決定」上，選民「媒體使用行為」，都不敵「政黨傾向」的影響來得強大。這說明了在強固「政黨傾向」下，選民選擇性的「媒體暴露行為」較大眾傳播媒介的「議題設定」功能更為有力；不只印證了「政黨傾向」在2012年總統大選投票行為中仍扮演最為關鍵角色；也證實了大眾傳播媒介主要的功能「只是在於增強而非改變閱聽人現有行為」。此外，在「選民之政黨傾向、媒體使用行為、兩岸政見議題立場對投票決定的影響」的多元洛基迴歸模式中，「政黨傾向」對「投票決定」的影響，更高於對「兩岸政見議題立場」的影響，換言之，即選民「政黨傾向」對2012年總統大選的影響，主要在閱聽人之行為層面，其次則為認知、意見和態度層面。
（二）本研究經由對「選民之政黨傾向、媒體使用行為、兩岸政見議題立場及投票決定等四者關係」的探討發現，大眾傳播媒介對2012年總統大選選民「兩岸政見議題（九二共識、ECFA、臺灣共識）立場」的影響方面，以「九二共識立場」的影響為最顯著，此影響在「選民之政黨傾向、媒體使用行為、兩岸政見議題立場對投票決定的影響」的多元洛基迴歸模式中，亦相同程度地反映在「九二共識立場」對「投票決定」的影響上，惟在該模式中，對「投票決定」影響最大者係「ECFA立場」（影響程度等同政黨傾向），其次為「臺灣共識立場」，再次為「九二共識立場」。顯見經濟因素等同政黨認同因素對選民投票行為亦具極強大的影響力，足以勝過大眾傳播媒介所造成的影響。不過，大眾傳播媒介對「九二共識立場」的影響仍有效地影響了選民的「投票決定」，吾人可謂，2012年總統大選雖非是對「九二共識」的一次公投，但卻可稱得上是對「ECFA」的一次公投，「九二共識」對馬英九的勝選亦發揮了一定的助力。而事實上，「兩岸政見議題」無論是「ECFA」、「臺灣共識」或是「九二共識」都對2012年總統大選選民之「投票決定」造成了相當顯著的影響。
This study investigated the relationships among Taiwanese voters’“cross-strait political issues position,” “media usage behavior,” “voting decisions,” and whether their “cross-strait political issues position” associated with the media’s related reporting stand in the 2012 presidential election. In addition, this study also explored on the mainland people’s “Taiwan media usage behavior” and “cross-strait political issues opinions,” to further interpret the results of Taiwan’s study in the present study regard as circumstantial evidence. In order to verify whether the study’s four hypotheses can be established, this study used the content analysis to explore four newspapers’ reporting stand on “cross-strait political issues” (the 1992 Consensus, ECFA, Taiwan Consensus) in the election period, and an exit polls and follow-up telephone interviews of Taiwanese voters’, additional questionnaires survey and in-depth interviewed mainland Chinese people. Factor analysis, chi-square analysis, multinomial logistic regression analysis were performed and reached the main findings and conclusions as follows:
THE MAIN FINDINGS
(1)China Times, United Daily News, Liberty Times, Apple Daily the four newspapers media’s reporting position on “cross-strait political issues (the 1992 Consensus, ECFA, Taiwan Consensus),” in which both the “1992 Consensus”and “ECFA” issues had significantly different position, but the “Taiwan Consensus” issue found no significant difference.
(2)Taiwan voters’ “media usage behavior” and their “cross-strait political issues position”, “voting decisions” significantly associated, in which the correlation with “cross-strait political issues position,” was higher than “voting decisions.”
(3)During the 2012 presidential election, Taiwan voters’ “cross-strait political issues position” was significantly associated with the media’s “cross-strait political issues coverage stand” they used.
(4)The mainland people’s “cross-strait political issues position ( including four aspects: ‘support for the cross-strait discourse,’ ‘support for the cross-strait agreement,’ ‘unfavorable on cross-strait current status,’ and ‘favorable on cross-strait progress’),” and their “Taiwan media usage behavior” significantly associated.
CONCLUSION
(1)In the 2012 presidential election, the mass media’s influence on the people across the Taiwan Strait was mainly in the political awareness, opinion and attitude aspects, on Taiwan voters’ voting behavior caused only a slight impact. In fact, this election influenced either on Taiwan voters’ “cross-strait political issues position” or their “voting decisions,” Taiwan voters’ “media usage behavior” influence less than their “party identification”. This showed due to Taiwan voters’ strong “party identification”, made their selective “media exposure behavior” to be more effectively than the mass media’s “Agenda-Setting” function; not only confirmed the “party identification” its effect on voting behavior in the 2012 presidential election was still to play the most crucial role; also confirmed the main function of the mass media is to enhance rather than changing the audience existing behavior. In addition, according to the result of “ ‘party identification,’ ‘media usage behavior,’ ‘cross-strait political issues position,’ influenced on ‘voting decisions’ ” in Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis, the effect of “party identification” on “voting decisions” was higher than that on “cross-strait political issues position.” In other words, that the influence of Taiwan voters’ “party identification” in the 2012 presidential election, was mainly on their behavior level, lesser on their cognitive, opinions and attitudes levels.
(2)This study explored by “the relationship between the four of Taiwan voters’ ‘party identification,’ ‘media usage behavior,’ ‘cross-strait political issues position’ and ‘voting decisions,’ ” found that the mass media in the 2012 presidential election influenced on Taiwan voters’ “cross-strait political issues (the 1992 Consensus, ECFA, Taiwan Consensus) position,” in which the most significant impact was on the “1992 Consensus position.” And according to
the study result of “Taiwan voters’ ‘party identification,’ ‘media usage behavior,’ ‘cross-strait political issues position’ influence on their ‘voting decisions’ ” in Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis, that Taiwan voters’ “media usage behavior” influenced on their “1992 consensus position,” and the influence also to the same extent reflected in the result that Taiwan
voters’ “1992 consensus position” effected on their “voting decision,” but in this mode the most affect to “voting decisions” was the “ECFA position” (Its impact was equivalent to “party identification”), followed by the “Taiwan Consensus position,” again for the “1992 consensus position.” Obviously, the economic factor equates party identification factor on voting behavior
also has a strong influence large enough to overcome the impact caused by the mass media. However, the impact of mass media on the voters’ “1992 Consensus position” was still effective in influencing their “voting decisions,” indeed, though the 2012 presidential election isn't a referendum of the “1992 Consensus,” but it can be said a referendum of the “ECFA,” while for Ma Ying-jeou's victory, the “1992 Consensus” is also a timely boost to play the finishing touches. In fact, the "cross-strait political issues," whether its "ECFA", "Taiwan Consensus" or "1992 Consensus" on the 2012 presidential election, voters’ “voting decisions” has caused quite a significant impact. |
