| 摘要: | 隨著行為財務學的興起，投資者心理與投資行為間之關係，逐漸引起財務學者的重視，有一些財務學家便著手探討經濟中立變數與股市報酬間的關係，其研究範圍包括雲量多寡、日照時間長短及月亮週期等對於股市報酬的影響。
本研究目的主要在探討天氣因子與大陸股票市場報酬率的關聯性，以溫度、濕度、降雨量及能見度當作天氣的變數，利用OLS、Logit迴歸分析檢定氣候變數對大陸股票市場報酬的影響。研究結果顯示，天氣因子對大陸深圳股市報酬的影響是負向的，印證了心理學家所說的天氣的變化會使人們的情緒改變，進而產生不理性的思維並做出偏頗的決策，連帶地影響股市的表現。
As behavioral finance becomes one of the mainstream financial researches, the re-lationship between investor sentiment and investment behavior has attracted much at-tention from financial economists. During last two decades, several studies have at-tempted to link stock returns and economically neural variables, and investigated varia-bles include cloud cover, daylight savings time changes and lunar cycle.
The main purpose of this study was to explore an investigation on the weather ef-fects on China stock market. We choose temperature, humidity, precipitation and visi-bility cover as proxy variables of sentiment and apply bin test, the OLS model and Logit model to examine how these variables can affect stock returns. The result show that climate have a negative correlation with stock return. It also suggests that climate chang would influence our emotion and our thought which may be in relation with our deci-sion-making with respect to investments in the stock market. |
