量化寬鬆政策對利率結構的影響

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Title:	量化寬鬆政策對利率結構的影響 The Effect Of Quantitative Easing On Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors:	黃鐘霆 Huang, Chung-Ting
Contributors:	經濟學系
Keywords:	量化寬鬆利率期限結構 Quantitative Easing Term Structure of Interest Rates
Date:	2014-06
Issue Date:	2014-09-05 16:19:34 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	美國從2008年，次級房屋貸款危機發生以來（Subprime Mortgage Crisis），美國聯準會（Federal Reserve Board簡稱FED）實施三次的量化寬鬆政策（Quantitative Easing簡稱QE）來穩定金融市場。此政策的目的是，控制整個經濟體系受金融危機影響的範圍；並且提供低利率環境輔助景氣復甦。QE政策主要可分成，直接購債計畫及前瞻性導引。藉由此政策達到壓低信貸利率、長期及短期債券殖利率。刺激企業投資成長及家庭跟企業的消費支出，避免美國經濟進入通縮的惡性循環。　　本文採用一般均衡模型，搭配Doh（2010）的利率結構關係式，探討QE3政策執行對景氣復甦的影響，尤其是對長短期利率結構及產出的效果。QE3政策壓低了市場利率，FED希望藉此刺激投資及消費的成長，進而提高GDP。QE3政策對利率及產出的影響，是否能如預期夠達到刺激經濟成長目的，是本文所關注的結果。此外，從QE1、QE2直到QE3政策的執行至今，觀察美國當下的經濟數據，比較次貸危機發生前的經濟數據，是否已有明顯改善。 Since American subprime crisis in 08 years, Federal Reserve Board has implemented the quantitative easing policy (referred QE) three times to stabilize the financial market. The purpose of this policy is to control the scope of the whole economic system affected by the financial crisis and to provide low interest rate environment assisting economic recovery. The QE policy can be mainly divided into direct asset purchase programs and forward guidance. The central bank want to achieve lower credit rate, long-term and short-term bond yield through this policy, stimulating enterprise investment growth and family and business spending to avoid the economy falling into a vicious circle of deflation. 　This paper adopted general equilibrium model, with Doh（2010）term structure of interest rates function to explore the effectiveness of Economic Recovery via executing QE3 policy, especially in the construction of term structure and GDP. QE3 policy depress market interest rate, FED hopes to stimulate investment and consumption growth, thereby increasing the GDP. This article focused on the result about effectiveness of interest rates and GDP by FED's policy and examined whether QE3 policy achieved the aim of stimulating economy as estimated or not. Besides, by observing the US economy, the economy statistics, which started from QE1, QE2, till nowadays, QE3, would be compared with the statistics, which existed before Subprime mortgage crisis, to see if economy had improved obviously.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Economics & Graduate Institute of Economics ] thesis

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