| 摘要: | 以往國內外相關研究均一致認為，初次公開發行市場存在上市初期蜜月期現象，以及後續長期價格低落的情形。蜜月期現象是指初次公開發行股票在甫上市時，產生一波短期超額報酬的行情。而初次公開發行股票上市後的長期報酬，則是呈現報酬不佳甚至負報酬的現象。其中，上市時蜜月期報酬越高者，其未來的長期價格績效低落的情形越明顯。關於蜜月期報酬以及長期績效低落雖然是世界各國證券市場一種普遍存在的現象，但是關於其最主要的原因卻是眾說紛紜，莫衷一是。
本研以盈餘管理、資訊不對稱、經理人投資決策等構面探討蜜月期現象成因及與後期長期股價報酬間的關係。盈餘管理的部分是以可裁量性應計項目為代理變數，資訊不對稱則是以上市櫃前董監事持股比例及已成立年數作為代表，投資決策則是用資本支出比率來判斷，並運用結構方程模式來驗證各項假說。
本研究以2001至2002年間初次公開發行公司為對象，實證結果發現：當公司上市櫃前有較高的董監事持股比例及資本支出率跟可裁量性應計項目時，會有不錯的蜜月期報酬。而上市前成立年數越高的公司，上市後蜜月期報酬雖然不顯著，但是長期持有報酬的跌幅卻是最小的。
Since before and till now, related researches, no matter domestic or foreign, have unanimously agreed that there is honeymoon period at the initial stage when a company issues shares to the public for the first time and the long-term consequent situation of low share price performance does exist. Honeymoon phenomenon occurs when the shares are just issued to the public market for the first time and has demonstrated a short-term wave of excessive rate of return. However, the long-term yield after the initial shares are sold in the stock market will show undesirable performance, and even negative rate of return will take place. Among the companies, if the rate of return is higher in the honeymoon period when the company starts trading in the stock exchange market, it is more apparent that the future price performance will be low. Although it is a commonly known situation that exists in every country’s stock exchange market in the world, opinions still vary and are unable to decide which one is right pertaining to the primary causes of such situation.
This research adopts three perspectives, namely control of earnings, information inconsistency, manager’s investment decisions, to explore the correlation between causes of honeymoon phenomenon and ensuing long-term rate of return on shares. Control of earnings uses discretionary accruals as substitute variable. Information inconsistency uses shareholders ratio of board of directors and supervisors and years of business as representation. Investment decisions are judged by capital expenditure ratio and utilize Structural Equation Modeling to test validity of each assumption.
This research uses the companies that were first traded on the public stock exchange market in the years of 2001 and 2002 as the objects of study. After testing and verifying, the following findings are resulted: When the shareholder ratio of board of directors and supervisors, capital expenditure, or discretionary accruals is higher prior to be listed on the stock market, the rate of return during honeymoon period will be enticing. Even though the companies with more years of business operation prior to listing in the stock market do not exhibit noticeable rate of return during honeymoon period, however, the tumble on rate of return for the long run is very minimal. |
