臺灣本島雖僅垮約四個緯度，但南北氣候異迥，降雨分佈也有很大的差異 性，以臺灣平均年降雨量為2515 毫米計算，總降雨量約900 億公頓，由於地形 因素，可用的水資源約¼，因此臺灣每一季必須有不斷的水源補充，水源不足即 可造成缺水的危機，其中以颱風及梅雨系統的降雨最為重要，但過多的降雨則往 往釀成嚴重的水災。本計畫擬針對梅雨季強降水個案，利用地面觀測資料、雷達 資料、衛星資料各個頻道、及閃電資料，並且融合SoWMEX 實驗觀測資料詳細 分析這些強降雨個案，特別是衛星資料，輔以雷達資料及閃電資料，分析個案發 生前肇之特性，並利用衛星資料分析其有利發展的區域，以及未來可能移動的地 區，建立梅雨期台灣地區中尺度降雨氣候與概念模式，並發展應用此類模 式之預報指引。 The main island of Taiwan only covers 4 degrees of latitude. However, the climate is quite different between the northern part and southern part. The rainfall distribution is also quite different. The annual mean rainfall rate is about 2515mm. The total rainfall amount the whole island is about 9*10**5 kg. Only 1/4 of the rainfall is usable. Therefore, the rainfall distribution over every season is quite important. However, there are still many severe rainfall flood events. In the project, the heavy rainfall events at the Mei-Yu season are studied. The cases between 2008-2012 are collected. In this project, the main data source will be focused on radar and satellite imageries. Using the satellite, the high potential for heavy rainfall area will be identified and the propagating area will also be identified based on these cases studies. A composite model for this type severe rainfall system will be established to benefit the forecaster.
