本研究分為兩個項目: 其一為延續目前NSC的計畫，了解西太平洋/菲律賓海區域的表層 海溫年際變化的動力機制，其二為探討氣旋肇始的海溫冷卻與西太平洋/菲律賓海區域 表層海溫年際變化的關聯。本研究將使用統計分析方法，利用海洋模式資料與各種觀 測資料，計算和解釋海洋結構、海溫變化與氣旋活動之間的關聯。本研究將增進對西 北太平洋/菲律賓海區域表層海溫變化與海氣交互作用之理解，以期從海洋結構狀態預 測氣旋與海溫的年際變化。 A few findings suggested that the local air-sea interaction feedback is potent in this western North Pacific region (Wang et al., 2001; Hsu et al., 2001). The composite of 14 El Niño events during 1955-2003 reveals that there are two-stage development of sea surface temperature cooling during El Niño years: the first peak of cooling appears in August-September of Nino(0) year, while the second peak in January-February of Nino(1) year. The formation of the winter peak of cooling is a continuing research from the current NSC proposal, while the summer peak is speculated to associated with the cyclone activities. The proposal is to extend previous studies on the ocean dynamical feedbacks on the sea surface temperature variation during the El Niño developing years, with another aspect of research on the impacts of cyclone activities on the regional SST/heat flux. The long-lasting of cyclones' self-induced ocean cooling would reflect onto the monthly average; in a sense that for the monthly average, the ocean sea surface temperature anomalies might be a result of accumulated high-frequency cyclone induced forcing rather than a passive response to the monthly air-sea fluxes. It can be anticipated that the proposed research will enhance our understanding of the role of cyclones on the interannual sea surface temperature variation, further to predict seasonal cyclone statics based on the ocean state.
