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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://irlib.pccu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/26558


    題名: 以多重技術指標預測台灣股價漲跌之研究
    Research on the Prediction of Taiwan Stock Price Fluctuation by Applying Different Technical Indicators
    作者: 蕭竣隆
    貢獻者: 資訊管理學系
    關鍵詞: 技術指標
    投資策略
    情境分析
    technical indicator
    investment strategy
    circumstances analysis
    日期: 2014
    上傳時間: 2014-01-21 15:07:09 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 技術分析是分析股票的工具之一。本研究使用台灣證券交易所1999年1月1日至2013年10月31日所有上市公司之歷史股價資料,運用技術分析將傳統較常見的20種不同技術指標,對所有上市公司進行模擬投資。結果顯示在不考慮交易成本時,僅八個技術指標可獲利,最好的指標為DMA,平均每次交易賺0.37元;最差的指標為MQ,平均每次交易賺0元,顯示出單一技術指標之獲利能力並不卓越。
    本研究訂立5種整合技術指標之策略及八種不同情境,來對指標組合進行獲利分析。於歷年的股價中不考慮交易成本時,策略1的KD、RSI指標組合於傳產類股,其平均獲利率為38.08%、策略2的MQ、MTM、BR指標組合於傳產類股,其平均獲利率為37.32%,策略5-3的AR x Aroon x Vosc、BIAS x Aroon x MQ指標組合於篩選過的所有公司,其平均獲利率為18.33%。
    於近兩年的股價中不考慮交易成本時,策略1的KD、RSI指標組合於中型公司,其平均獲利率為28.61%,策略2的MQ、MTM、BR指標組合於電子類股,其平均獲利率為52.83%,策略5-3的AR x Aroon x Vosc、BIAS x Aroon x MQ指標組合於電子類股,其平均獲利率為10.42%。
    Technical analysis is one of the tools to analyze stock. Utilizing the technical analysis, this research adopted historical share prices of all listed companies from Janu-ary 1st, 1999 to October 31st, 2013 by Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation and simu-lated the investment in all listed companies by twenty common technical indicators. The result shows that only eight technical indicators are profitable in condition that the cost of transaction is excluded. DMA is the best technical indicator which makes an average profit of 0.37 New Taiwan dollars per transaction, while MQ is the worst one that makes an average profit of zero New Taiwan dollar per transaction which shows that the profitability of single technical indicator is not outstanding.
    Forming five strategies of integrated technical indicators and eight situations, this research adopted all strategies and situations to analyze the profitability of the index combination. On condition that the cost of transaction on historical stock prices is ex-cluded, the percentage of average profitability on strategy 1 is 38.08% from the index combination between KD and RSI on stocks of traditional industry, the combination among MQ, MTM, and BR on stocks of traditional industry on strategy 2 is 37.32%, and the combination between AR x Aroon x Vosc and BIAS x Aroon x MQ on stocks of all selected companies from strategy 5-3 is 18.33%.
    On condition that the cost of transaction on historical stock prices in recent two years is excluded, the percentage of average profitability on strategy 1 consisted of KD and RSI on medium-sized companies is 28.61%, the combination among MQ, MTM, and BR on stocks of electronics industry on strategy 2 is 52.83%, and the combination between AR x Aroon x Vosc and BIAS x Aroon x MQ on stocks of electronics industry on strategy 5-3 is 10.42%
    顯示於類別:[資訊管理學系暨資訊管理研究所 ] 博碩士論文

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