隨著全球高齡化社會的現象普及民眾保健意識抬頭下，促使全球醫療體系面臨重大挑戰及商機，促使預防醫學、藥品和醫療材器等生物科技成為當今之顯學。對投資人而言，生技公司的產品上市前需面對冗長時間進行研發及人體試驗，亦需龐大資本投入，以符合各國藥政法規嚴格審議，其承受經營風險甚巨。因此站在投資人的角度，如何有效瞭解生技產業之經營狀況，進而獲利實有其探討必要。
本研究收集台灣上市(櫃)生技公司2002年至2012年底止之財務資訊加以分類，並將經營階段劃分成五階段。透過馬可夫鏈分析方法，將其中一個階段視為吸收狀態。以瞭解整體上市(櫃)生技公司的營運行為分佈及移轉狀況。估算出生技公司經營各階段之財務狀況機率及不同階段之移轉機率、平均存活時間。冀希望透過上市(櫃)生技公司營運階段分佈情形及經營階段移轉機率之估算，得知一企業為何種經營階段的比率，且瞭解其存活時間長短，以供投資者作為決策時之參加，進而使投資風險降低。
With the aging society coming and health care increasing, the development of biotechnological industry has been considered as the most important thing in the global medical system. However, for investors, the newly biotechnological companies have been considered has high uncertainty, and makes investors difficult to evaluate the Investment potential.
The purpose of this study is to explore the behavior of business operation in Taiwanese Listed biotechnological companies during 2002-2012. Therefore, this study applied absorbing Markov Chain model to analyze the distribution and transition probabilities of different stage of business operation, and to investigate average survival times in each stage. The empirical findings would contribute to forecast the distribution, transition probabilities and average survival times of different stage of business operation, and regard as a reference for investors in decision-making.
