| 摘要: | 回顧人類歷史許多古老的文明都是從一條河流開始，甚至我們可以這麼說，人類的群居形成聚落，乃至於都市的發展，絕大多數與河流有密不可分的關係。河流對人類如此重要，我們確常常視而不見，而忽略其存在的價值，如何衡量河川對當地地價之影響，從地價相關文獻中發現，大部分文獻皆著眼於交通動線、都市計畫分佈對地價之影響，鮮少研究河川因素與地價之關連性。
本研究擬以文獻回顧檢閱分析並發展理論架構，運用時間序列分析說明旭川河加蓋及擬拆除復原對地價之影響，利用蒐集旭川河左側臨近地價區段之歷年公告土地現值及地形、地貌等資料，分析河川整治復原對地價影響。本研究共分五章二十節，第一章說明本研究緣起、動機、目的，並確立研究步驟、方法與流程做為研究基礎；第二章針對研究目的蒐集影響地價因素、河川復原及時間序列分析相關文獻回顧，以建立研究理論架構；第三章蒐集旭川河實證區地價資料，並建構時間序列分析模型；第四章先繪時間序列圖說明旭川河加蓋及復原計畫對地價影響程度，最後由Box-Jenkins所提出的ARIMA (自我迴歸整合移動平均) 運用時間序列解釋模型推估實際值與預測值之價格差異比；第五章則以研究結果提出結論與建議。
研究結果得知，1975至1978年間旭川河整治並加蓋興建了旭川大樓及東岸高架橋，係屬政府重大公共投資建設與交通開發，除增加住宅供給外，因道路闢建可將空間、時間距離縮短，創造當地房地產增值，故其開始規劃至完成階段皆會帶動當地地價上漲，故於1975年至1978年距旭川河50公尺地價平均約上漲26.6%，而其它兩組平均下跌9.83％。但觀察自1993年後三組地價每年皆為下跌，可知旭川河加蓋所造成河道阻塞及污水問題，另崁仔頂漁市造成附近環境髒亂影響，原本旭川商業大樓繁華景象，也由興盛繁榮景象慢慢步入衰敗，問題也因而慢慢浮現，故自1993至2008年間距旭川河50、100、200公尺三組地價平均下跌約為5.95%、5.77％、6.35％。基隆市政府為積極營造水岸都市意象故2009年計畫拆除現有旭川大樓與東岸高架橋，復原加蓋之旭川河恢復其水流意象，並規劃水岸親水空間，但因旭川地區更新案進度遙遙無期，河川復原計畫成效未顯著形成自2009年起三組地價平均下跌為6.5%、5.81％、6.21％。最後預測距旭川河50、100、200公尺三組地價自2013年至2015年地價每年平均年增率約上漲8.98%、8.37％、8.89％，故可知臨旭川河越近之區域其漲幅越大，從臨水岸住宅其房價高於其它同型住宅，即可看出其端倪。
Tracing back the history of mankind, ancient civilizations were all built around the rivers; we can even say that most human communities and urban development are closely connected with the rivers. Although rivers are important to mankind, we often overlook and ignore their values of existence. From the previous relevant land value documents we can see that most documents were focused on the transportation routes and the impact of urban planning on the land values, and few discussed the connections between river factors and land values.
This study intended to review, to analyze and to develop its theoretical framework by document review, and it explained how the Hsu-Chuan River covering construction and remediation impacted the land values with time series analysis. It also analyzed the impact of river remediation on the land values by collecting the data of announced current value, topography and geomorphology over the years of the land value districts nearby the left bank of Hsu-Chuan River. The study was divided into five chapters and twenty sections. The first chapter explained the origin, motivation and purpose of the study, and it established the research steps, methods and procedure as the basis. The second chapter established the theoretical framework by collecting land value factors, conducting time series analysis on the river remediation, and document reviews according to the research purpose. The third chapter collected land value data of the Hsu-Chuan River empirical districts and constructed the time series analysis model. The fourth chapter firstly illustrated the time series graphic to explain the impact degree of Hsu-Chuan River covering and restoration plan on the land values, and then explained the price differences between model estimated values and actual values by the time series analysis with ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) introduced by Box-Jenkins. The fifth chapter provided conclusion and suggestions according to the research results.
The research results revealed that the Hsu-Chuan River remediation and covering construction for the Hsu-Chuan building and East-Bank viaduct during 1975-1978 were of a major government public investment in construction and transportation development, so that the housing supply would be increased, spatial and time distances would be shortened, and local real estate values would be improved. Indeed, the local land values rose accordingly from the planning to the completion stages of the project. The land values of the district 50m (meters) from the river had risen 26.6% during 1975-1978, while the other two groups dropped 9.83% averagely. However, it was observed that the land values of all three groups dropped every year after 1993, due to the river obstruction, sewage problems after the covering construction and the terrible environmental problems caused by Kan-Tsai-Ding fish market. As a result, from the flourishing prosperity the Hsu-Chuan business building slowly went downhill as the problems gradually appeared. During 1993-2008, the three groups of lands which are 50m, 100m, and 200m from the river dropped around 5.95%, 5.77% and 6.35% respectively. In order to create a waterfront urban imagery, in 2009, Keelung City Government planned to demolish the existing Hsu-Chuan Building and East-Bank viaduct, recovering the water imagery by opening the covered Hsu-Chuan River, and was going to plan for waterfront recreation spaces. However, as the recovery plan of Hsu-Chuan area seemed no progress and the river restoration plan wasn't significantly developed, the three groups continued to drop 6.5%, 8.37% and 6.21% since 2009. Lastly, it is predicted that the land values of the three groups will rise 8.98%, 8.37% and 8.89% annually from 2013 to 2015. The closer the lands are to the river, the higher the land values will rise. It's obvious to tell from the fact that the housing prices of waterfront residential are higher than other residential of the same type. |
