本文主要係利用統計科學方法，建構企業(尤其是集團業)信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)。研究對象以
2002-2012年台灣上市櫃之集團業為主，由於集團業存在著金字塔型結構與交叉持股特性，企業在進行大型投資案時，多使用財務槓桿以調度資金，當企業發生信用風險或財務危機，其典型表徵即是無力償還到期負債，易形成股市地雷。為使外部投資人與內部利害關係人瞭解企業使用財務槓桿是否適宜，本文利用財務變數與公司治理變數做解釋變數，期望找出影響公司績效之顯著變數，事前有效預測出企業信用風險發生之機率，減少企業發生財務風險(Financial Risk)的損失，降低企業信用風險發生的可能性，進而提高公司績效。提供經營者、投資人、金融機構授信審核、學術研究與政府等單位作為投資與融資決策的參考。
The paper tries to construct corporation (especially group company) Credit Risk Models by statistical methods. After observing the Listed and OTC group companies in Taiwan from 2002 to 2012, it could be found that owing to the characteristics of pyramid structure and cross-shareholding, group companies would tend to use financial leverage when performing large-scale investment. While credit risks or financial crisis took place, the typical characteristic is the inability to pay off its debits. In order to help External Investors and Stakeholder understand if a corporation use financial leverage properly, the paper views the financial variables and the corporate governance variables as explanatory variables, expecting to find explicit variables that have influence on the company's performance and effectively the possibility of the corporate credit risk predicted in advance, hope to reduce the loss of financial risks and the likelihood of corporate credit risk, and improving corporate performance instead. The Credit Risk Models could provide effective suggestions to managers, investors, credit reviewer of financial institutions, academic research and government while making investment and finance decisions.
