由於台灣屬於海島型經濟,對外貿易依存度很高,土地面積狹小,天然資源稀少,但由於地理位置佳,位於亞太地區交通關鍵樞紐,因而使台灣成為亞太地區重要之中繼站。許多學者曾針對影響兩岸貿易的重要因素詳加探討。本研究主要探討影響台灣與中國之進出口重要之因素。
在進口方程式中匯率為正向顯著影響,解釋為當匯率上升台灣對中國進口會增加。台灣實質所得為正向且顯著,解釋為當實質所得上升台灣對中國進口會增加。直接投資為正向且顯著,解釋為當直接投資上升台灣對中國進口會增加。虛擬變數為正向且顯著影響,解釋為當簽訂ECFA後台灣對中國進口會增加。相對進口價格為負向但顯著解釋為當直接相對進口價格上升台灣對中國進口會減少。
在出口方程式中匯率為正向,但不顯著影響台灣對中國之出口貿易額。中國實質所得為正向且顯著,解釋為當實質所得上升台灣對中國出口會增加。直接投資為正向但不顯著影響台灣對中國之出口貿易額。相對出口物價價格為負向但顯著解釋為當直接相對出口價格下降台灣對中國出口會減少。虛擬變數為正向且顯著影響,解釋為當簽訂ECFA後台灣對中國出口會增加。
Taiwan is an island economy, highly dependent on foreign trade. Natural resources are scarce, but it's a key transportation hub in the Asia Pacific region, making Taiwan turns into the Asia Pacific region important relay station. There are many scholars do research about Taiwan& China.
The exchange rate of the import equation is positive . Taiwan's real income is positive and significant. Direct investment is positive and significant. Dummy variable is positive and significant impact. Relative import prices is negative but significant.
The exchange rate of the export equation is positive but not significant impact on China's export trade in Taiwan. Chinese real income is positive and significant. Direct investment is positive but not significant. Export prices relative to prices is negative but significant. Dummy variable is positive and significant impact.