| 摘要: | Tourism and export are important business sectors for economic growth, and plays important roles in developing countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. This research uses cointegration and Granger causality to examine the causality among tourism, using international tourist arrivals (ITA) as a proxy, export, and economic growth, using real GDP as a proxy. This research employs annual data from 1980 to 2010. The relationship among tourism, export, and economic growth is essential to policy development in developing countries. For Indonesia’s time series, results show that bidirectional Granger causality runs between tourism and export. While, a unidirectional Granger causality runs from GDP to export as well as from GDP to tourism. Meanwhile, for Malaysia’s time series, results show that there is no Granger causality between variables. However, neither export-led growth hypothesis nor tourism-led hypothesis is supported for both Indonesia’s and Malaysia’s time series. The policy implication of this result is economic growth has an adverse effect to the development of tourism industry and export performance in Indonesia. Indeed, both tourism and export are two sectors that move in tandem in the country. But based on Malaysia’s time series, the policy’s formulation on tourism and export have no an adverse effect to economic growth, so does economic growth to both tourism and export. Therefore, it means that among economic growth, tourism, and export are move independently without any adverse effect among them. It comes with one policy recommendation that the government policy does not have to consider the impact of policy formulation on each time series herein. |
