| 摘要: | 本文主要係利用統計科學方法(二元Logistic迴歸)，建構企業(尤其是家族業)信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)，考慮企業自有資金(Own Funds Ratio)情形，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數，儘可能在公司未發生信用風險前，預測出可能發生之機率，達到事前預警與風險管理(Risk Management)之效，提供金融機構授信審核、企業經營者與投資人投資融資決策之用。
實證分析上，針對2002-2012年台灣上市櫃之家族業，以台灣經濟新報(TEJ)資料庫之九項財務危機定義及七項準財務危機定義，作為本文信用風險之定義，區分財務正常公司及財務危機公司，採用Beaver (1966) 之1：1配對原則，選取公司樣本合計162家。利用28個財務比率變數與3個公司治理變數，進行K-S檢定、M-U檢定，進一步區分當企業自有資金比率＜50%，篩選出影響公司績效之顯著變數，建構企業Logistic信用風險模型，降低企業發生信用風險之可能性。因此，本文實證價值與管理涵義，家族業重視財務風險管理與公司治理，建立有效之信用風險模型，以為投融資決策與財務預測之用，進一步可降低銀行授信之風險性資產(Risky Assets)，提高銀行之資本適足率(BIS Ratio)。
The paper mainly focus on the use of statistical methods to (binary logistic re-gression) construct credit risk models on family controlled companies, consider the situation of the enterprises own funds ratio to identify significant impact on corporate performance variables as much as possible before the company did not have a credit risk, predict the probability that may occur to achieve the effect of advance warning and risk management, financial institutions credit review, business owners and investors with investment financing decisions.
Empirical analysis, 2002-2012 Taiwan listed family business, the Taiwan Eco-nomic Journal (TEJ) database of nine financial crisis definition and the definition of seven prospective financial crisis, as the definition of the credit risk of this article, the distinction between normal financial and financial crisis the company, Beaver (1966) on the principle of 1:1, select the company a total of 162 samples. 28 Financial Ratios variables and three corporate governance variables, K-S test, M-U test further distinguish when companies own funds ratio＜50%, and filter out the significant variables that affect the corporate performance, construct logistic credit risk models, to reduce the possibility of corporate credit risk. Therefore, the empirical value and meaning of family industry emphasis on financial risk management and corporate governance, the establishment of an effective credit risk models, that investment and financing decision-making and financial projections used to further reduce bank credit risk-weighted assets (Risky Assets) improve the Bank's capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio). |
