摘要: | 從2008年美國金融海嘯開始,反映出美國金融監管制度的不當,同時為刺激經濟成長,美國聯邦準備局(FED)採取量化寬鬆貨幣政策,不斷擴大政府支出,冀望能降低失業率,導致美國家的債務高漲;目前美元仍為國際主流貨幣,在國際資金移動的過程中,進而影響到歐元區投資及貨幣穩定,對歐洲產業也造成持續性的衝擊,進而引發歐債危機,因此,自2010年希臘開始,接續由愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙、義大利五國,同時受到影響,到目前2012年為止,陸續申請歐盟與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)紓困的五個國家,實際為希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙、賽普勒斯,事實上紓困的同時也承諾實施「結構調整政策」,來改善國內經濟,避免債務赤字的高漲;然而,無論從國家層面、區域層面、國際層面三方面的配合,在面對歐洲債務危機時,依舊需要時間來逐步解決,畢竟歐債問題,已非是短期的困境,而是長期累積下之問題。
當然,歐盟身為中共最重要且最大的出口地,為此,除了穩定雙方經貿互動,更重要的是,對於債務問題的解決,中共將以何種態度去應對,以何種實質的力量,去幫助歐洲,使歐洲走出困境,並且能達成雙贏局面;因此,中國不僅僅要穩定對歐關係的互動,也更需要維持國內經濟的持續成長;至此,歐中關係的開始,為經濟貿易展開跨領域的層級,也藉由歐洲債務問題,衍生出雙方的合作是否有衝突點,並且中共除了與歐盟雙方面的互動,也深入歐盟內部的國家,強化雙邊關係,使雙方緊密的結合,達成所謂戰略關係的必要條件,因此,藉由雙方的協談、透明化資訊、交往互動的過程、延伸國家內部。
本文架構先了解歐洲債務的起因、債務解決機制、並同於國家層面、區域層面、國際層面來做探討,同時,以歐洲債務為觀察基準點,檢視歐中雙方的互動關係,與經貿活動等,以及其內部的政策意涵;其次,從新自由制度主義與現實主義兩者來探討今後歐中關係的未來展望;最後,雙方在面對歐洲債務共同意識,並延伸至國內制度如何加以改善,以避免總體經濟二次衰退的產生。
The root cause triggering global financial crisis starting from 2008 was the false regulation and governance in U.S. financial system. In order to stimulate the U.S. economy and resolve financial problem, the federal government was taking a series of the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, which resulted in even high U.S government deficits. U.S. dollar remains the main currency in the global market. European Union economy and debt crisis were jeopardized by not only financial tsunami impact but also global cash flow from USD into EUR. When the European debt crisis started in 2010, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy were spontaneously affected. European Union must prevent the entire Euro Zone from domino effect. In 2012, therefore, the IMF commenced to bailout Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus. Those countries also promised to implement the structure adjustment policy to pull their economy back to the right track. The crucial solution for Europe debt crisis is not easily resolved in a short term but must have a long term planning and sustainable policy with state, regional and global analytical levels.
From international export contribution perspectives, Europe is the most important partner for China. Hence, dealing with Europe debt crisis, China must take action to not only bail out the entire Europe, but also stimulate China’s own economy. China has to enhance their partnership with Europe from international trades to political, fiscal, and monetary policies by positive interactive negotiations, transparent information exchanges, and comprehensive cooperation.
The thesis emphasizes on the root causes of Europe debt crisis, and the resolutions in the state level, regional level and international level to further analyze the relationship between China and Europe by review three levels. Firstly, it examines the internal meaning of policy. Then, it analyses future relationships between European Union and China with neo-liberal institutionalism and realism. Finally, it suggests that both EU and China should have common ideas and improve their local systems to prevent their macro economy from second recession |